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Journal articlePang B, Cheng S, Huang Y, et al., 2025,
Fire-Image-DenseNet (FIDN) for predicting wildfire burnt area using remote sensing data
, Computers and Geosciences, Vol: 195, ISSN: 0098-3004Predicting the extent of massive wildfires once ignited is essential to reduce the subsequent socioeconomic losses and environmental damage, but challenging because of the complexity of fire behavior. Existing physics-based models are limited in predicting large or long-duration wildfire events. Here, we develop a deep-learning-based predictive model, Fire-Image-DenseNet (FIDN), that uses spatial features derived from both near real-time and reanalysis data on the environmental and meteorological drivers of wildfire. We trained and tested this model using more than 300 individual wildfires that occurred between 2012 and 2019 in the western US. In contrast to existing models, the performance of FIDN does not degrade with fire size or duration. Furthermore, it predicts final burnt area accurately even in very heterogeneous landscapes in terms of fuel density and flammability. The FIDN model showed higher accuracy, with a mean squared error (MSE) about 82% and 67% lower than those of the predictive models based on cellular automata (CA) and the minimum travel time (MTT) approaches, respectively. Its structural similarity index measure (SSIM) averages 97%, outperforming the CA and FlamMap MTT models by 6% and 2%, respectively. Additionally, FIDN is approximately three orders of magnitude faster than both CA and MTT models. The enhanced computational efficiency and accuracy advancements offer vital insights for strategic planning and resource allocation for firefighting operations.
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Journal articleSethi SS, Bick A, Chen M-Y, et al., 2024,
Reply to Araújo: Good science requires focus.
, Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, Vol: 121 -
Journal articleSchroeder J, Dunning J, Chan AHH, et al., 2024,
Not so social in old age: demography as one driver of decreasing sociality.
, Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci, Vol: 379Humans become more selective with whom they spend their time, and as a result, the social networks of older humans are smaller than those of younger ones. In non-human animals, processes such as competition and opportunity can result in patterns of declining sociality with age. While there is support for declining sociality with age in mammals, evidence from wild bird populations is lacking. Here, we test whether sociality declines with age in a wild, insular bird population, where we know the exact ages of individuals. Using 6 years of sociality data, we find that as birds aged, their degree and betweenness decreased. The number of same-age birds still alive also decreased with age. Our results suggest that a longitudinal change in sociality with age may be, in part, an emergent effect of natural changes in demography. This highlights the need to investigate the changing costs and benefits of sociality across a lifetime.This article is part of the discussion meeting issue 'Understanding age and society using natural populations'.
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Journal articleEwers RM, Cook J, Daniel OZ, et al., 2024,
New insights to be gained from a Virtual Ecosystem
, Ecological Modelling, Vol: 498, ISSN: 0304-3800The myriad interactions among individual plants, animals, microbes and their abiotic environment generate emergent phenomena that will determine the future of life on Earth. Here, we argue that holistic ecosystem models – incorporating key biological domains and feedbacks between biotic and abiotic processes and capable of predicting emergent phenomena – are required if we are to understand the functioning of complex, terrestrial ecosystems in a rapidly changing planet. We argue that holistic ecosystem models will provide a framework for integrating the many approaches used to study ecosystems, including biodiversity science, population and community ecology, soil science, biogeochemistry, hydrology and climate science. Holistic models will provide new insights into the nature and importance of feedbacks that cut across scales of space and time, and that connect ecosystem domains such as microbes with animals or above with below ground. They will allow us to critically examine the origins and maintenance of ecosystem stability, resilience and sustainability through the lens of systems theory, and provide a much-needed boost for conservation and the management of natural environments. We outline our approach to developing a holistic ecosystem model – the Virtual Ecosystem – and argue that while the construction of such complex models is obviously ambitious, it is both feasible and necessary.
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Journal articleSayol F, Wayman JP, Dufour P, et al., 2024,
AVOTREX: A Global Dataset of Extinct Birds and Their Traits
, Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol: 33, ISSN: 1466-822XMotivation: Human activities have been reshaping the natural world for tens of thousands of years, leading to the extinction of hundreds of bird species. Past research has provided evidence of extinction selectivity towards certain groups of species, but trait information is lacking for the majority of clades, especially for prehistoric extinctions identified only through subfossil remains. This incomplete knowledge potentially obscures the structure of natural communities, undermining our ability to infer changes in biodiversity across space and time, including trends in functional and phylogenetic diversity. Biases in currently available trait data also limit our ability to identify drivers and processes of extinction. Here we present AVOTREX, an open-access database of species traits for all birds known to have gone extinct in the last 130,000 years. This database provides detailed morphological information for 610 extinct species, along with a pipeline to build phylogenetic trees that include these extinct species. Main Types of Variables Contained: For each extinct bird species, we provide information on the taxonomy, geographic location, and period of extinction. We also present data on island endemicity, flight ability, and body mass, as well as standard measurements of external (matching the AVONET database of extant birds) and skeletal morphology from museum specimens where available. To ensure comprehensive morphological data coverage, we estimate all missing morphological measurements using a data imputation technique based on machine learning. Finally, we provide an R package to graft all extinct species onto a global phylogeny of extant species (BirdTree). Spatial Location and Grain: Global. Time Period and Grain: All known globally extinct bird species from 130,000 years ago up until 2024. Major Taxa and Level of Measurement: Birds (Class Aves), species level. Software Format: Spreadsheets (.csv) stored in Dryad.
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Journal articleStemkovski M, Fife A, Stuart R, et al., 2024,
Bee Phenological Distributions Predicted by Inferring Vital Rates.
, Am Nat, Vol: 204, Pages: E115-E127AbstractHow bees shift the timing of their seasonal activity (phenology) to track favorable conditions influences the degree to which bee foraging and flowering plant reproduction overlap. While bee phenology is known to shift due to interannual climatic variation and experimental temperature manipulation, the underlying causes of these shifts are poorly understood. Most studies of bee phenology have been phenomenological and have only examined shifts of point estimates, such as first appearance or peak timing. Such cross-sectional measures are convenient for analysis, but foraging activity is distributed across time, and pollination interactions are better described by overlap in phenological abundance curves. Here, we make simultaneous inferences about interannual shifts in bee phenology, emergence and senescence rates, population size, and the effect of floral abundance on observed bee abundance. We do this with a model of transition rates between life stages implemented in a hierarchical Bayesian framework and parameterized with fine-scale abundance time series of the sweat bee Halictus rubicundus at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory in Colorado. We find that H. rubicundus's emergence cueing was highly sensitive to the timing of snowmelt but that emergence rate, senescence rate, and population size did not differ greatly across years. The present approach can be used to glean information about vital rates from other datasets on bee and flower phenology, improving our understanding of pollination interactions.
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Journal articleParry C, Turnbull C, Barter L, et al., 2024,
Shedding light on pollination deficits: cueing into plant spectral reflectance signatures to monitor pollination delivery across landscapes
, Journal of Applied Ecology, Vol: 61, Pages: 2873-2883, ISSN: 0021-8901Pollination underlies plant yield, health and reproductive success in agricultural and natural systems worldwide. It is therefore concerning that declining animal pollinator populations compounded by growing demands for food are leading to rising pollination deficits, with globally significant economic and environmental implications.Despite this urgent issue, accurate and scalable tools to quantify and track pollination across useful spatiotemporal scales are lacking. Here, we propose to shed new light on pollination deficits, looking to remote sensing platforms as a transformative mapping and monitoring tool and a solution for pollinator conservation and crop management.Providing a synthesis of our current understanding of pollination-triggered floral senescence and underlying ultrastructural and metabolic changes, we propose how spectral reflectance technologies could be applied to accurately detect pollination events in real-time and at the landscape scale.Synthesis and applications: We highlight where research efforts can be targeted to produce scalable methods for identifying field-relevant bioindicators of pollination. We provide guidance on how spectral imaging accompanied by machine learning and coupled with autonomous operation technologies will enable applications to detect pollination delivery across complex landscapes. Ultimately, such an ecological application will transform our quantitative understanding of pollination services and, by directly linking plant yields and health, will reveal pollination deficits at high resolution to help mitigate risks to food security and ecosystem functioning.
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Journal articleClegg T, Pawar S, 2024,
Variation in thermal physiology can drive the temperature-dependence of microbial community richness
, eLife, ISSN: 2050-084XPredicting how species diversity changes along environmental gradients is an enduring problem in ecology. In microbes current theories tend to invoke energy availability and enzyme kinetics as the main drivers of temperature-richness relationships. Here we derive a general empirically-grounded theory that can explain this phenomenon by linking microbial species richness in competitive communities to variation in the temperature-dependence of their interaction and growth rates. Specifically, the shape of the microbial community temperature-richness relationship depends on how rapidly the strength of effective competition between species pairs changes with temperature relative to the variance of their growth rates. Furthermore, it predicts that a thermal specialist-generalist tradeoff in growth rates alters coexistence by shifting this balance, causing richness to peak at relatively higher temperatures. Finally, we show that the observed patterns of variation in thermal performance curves of metabolic traits across extant bacterial taxa is indeed sufficient to generate the variety of community-level temperature-richness responses observed in the real world. Our results provide a new and general mechanism that can help explain temperature-diversity gradients in microbial communities, and provide a quantitative framework for interlinking variation in the thermal physiology of microbial species to their community-level diversity.
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Journal articleChik HYJ, Sibma A, Mannarelli M-E, et al., 2024,
Heritability and age-dependent changes in genetic variation of telomere length in a wild house sparrow population
, Evolution Letters<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>Telomere length (TL) and/or its rate of change are popular biomarkers of senescence, as telomere dynamics are linked with survival and lifespan. However, the evolutionary potential of telomere dynamics has received mixed support in natural populations. To better understand how telomere dynamics evolve, it is necessary to quantify genetic variation in TL and how such variation changes with age. Here, we analyzed 2,083 longitudinal samples from 1,225 individuals across 16 years, collected from a wild, insular house sparrow (Passer domesticus) population with complete life history and genetic relatedness data. Using a series of “animal” models, we confirmed that TL changes with age, reflecting senescence in this population. We found TL to be repeatable (14.0%, 95% CrI: 9.1%–19.9%) and heritable (12.3%, 95% CrI: 7.5%–18.2%); and detected a genotype-by-age interaction, meaning that genotypes differ in their rate of change of TL, and additive genetic variance increases at older ages. Our findings provide empirical evidence from a wild population that supports hypotheses explaining the evolution of senescence and highlight the importance of telomere dynamics as a key biomarker of body physiology for the evolution of senescence.</jats:p>
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Journal articleMaurenza D, Crouzeilles R, Prevedello JA, et al., 2024,
Effects of deforestation on multitaxa community similarity in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.
, Conserv BiolHabitat loss can lead to biotic homogenization (decrease in β diversity) or differentiation (increase in β diversity) of biological communities. However, it is unclear which of these ecological processes predominates in human-modified landscapes. We used data on vertebrates, invertebrates, and plants to quantify β diversity based on species occurrence and abundance among communities in 1367 landscapes with varying amounts of habitat (<30%, 30-60%, or >60% of forest cover) throughout the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Decreases in habitat amount below 30% led to increased compositional similarity of vertebrate and invertebrate communities, which may indicate a process of biotic homogenization throughout the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. No pattern was detected in plant communities. We found that habitat loss was associated with a deterministic increase in faunal community similarity, which is consistent with a selected subset of species being capable of thriving in human-modified landscapes. The lack of pattern found in plants was consistent with known variation between taxa in community responses to habitat amount. Brazilian legislation requiring the preservation of 20% of Atlantic Forest native vegetation may be insufficient to prevent the biotic homogenization of faunal communities. Our results highlight the importance of preserving large amounts of habitat, providing source areas for the recolonization of deforested landscapes, and avoiding large-scale impacts of homogenization of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.
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Journal articleLiu J, Ryu Y, Luo X, et al., 2024,
Evidence for widespread thermal acclimation of canopy photosynthesis
, Nature Plants, ISSN: 2055-026XPlants acclimate to temperature by adjusting their photosynthetic capacity over weeks to months. However, most evidence for photosynthetic acclimation derives from leaf-scale experiments. Here, we address the scarcity of evidence for canopy-scale photosynthetic acclimation by examining the correlation between maximum photosynthetic rates (Amax,2000) and growth temperature ((T_air ) ̅) across a range of concurrent temperatures and canopy foliage quantity, using data from over 200 eddy covariance sites. We detect widespread thermal acclimation of canopy-scale photosynthesis, demonstrated by enhanced Amax,2000 under higher (T_air ) ̅, across flux sites with adequate water availability. A 14-day period is identified as the most relevant time scale for acclimation across all sites, with a range of 12–25 days for different plant functional types. The mean apparent thermal acclimation rate across all ecosystems is 0.41 (-0.38–1.04 for 5th–95th percentile range) µmol m-2 s-1 C-1, with croplands showing the largest and grasslands the lowest acclimation rates. Incorporating an optimality-based prediction of leaf photosynthetic capacities into a biochemical photosynthesis model is shown to improve the representation of thermal acclimation. Our results underscore the critical need for enhanced understanding and modelling of canopy-scale photosynthetic capacity to accurately predict plant responses to warmer growing seasons.
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Journal articleZhang-Zheng H, Deng X, Aguirre-Gutierrez J, et al., 2024,
Why models underestimate West African tropical forest primary productivity
, Nature Communications, Vol: 15, ISSN: 2041-1723Tropical forests dominate terrestrial photosynthesis, yet there are major contradictions in our understanding due to a lack of field studies, especially outside the tropical Americas. A recent field study indicated that West African forests have among the highest forests gross primary productivity (GPP) yet observed, contradicting models that rank them lower than Amazonian forests. Here, we show possible reasons for this data-model mismatch. We found that biometric GPP measurements are on average 56.3% higher than multiple global GPP products at the study sites. The underestimation of GPP largely disappears when a standard photosynthesis model is informed by local field-measured values of (a) fractional absorbed photosynthetic radiation (fAPAR), and (b) photosynthetic traits. Remote sensing products systematically underestimate fAPAR (33.9% on average at study sites) due to cloud contamination issues. The study highlights the potential widespread underestimation of tropical forests GPP and carbon cycling and hints at the ways forward for model and input data improvement.
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Journal articleBarber RA, Yang J, Yang C, et al., 2024,
Climate and ecology predict latitudinal trends in sexual selection inferred from avian mating systems.
, PLoS Biol, Vol: 22Sexual selection, one of the central pillars of evolutionary theory, has powerful effects on organismal morphology, behaviour, and population dynamics. However, current knowledge about geographical variation in this evolutionary mechanism and its underlying drivers remains highly incomplete, in part because standardised data on the strength of sexual selection is sparse even for well-studied organisms. Here, we use information on mating systems-including the incidence of polygamy and extra-pair paternity-to estimate the intensity of sexual selection in 10,671 (>99.9%) bird species distributed worldwide. We show that avian sexual selection varies latitudinally, peaking at higher latitudes, although the gradient is reversed in the world's most sexually selected birds-specialist frugivores-which are strongly associated with tropical forests. Phylogenetic models further reveal that the strength of sexual selection is explained by temperature seasonality coupled with a suite of climate-associated factors, including migration, diet, and territoriality. Overall, these analyses suggest that climatic conditions leading to short, intense breeding seasons, or highly abundant and patchy food resources, increase the potential for polygamy in birds, driving latitudinal gradients in sexual selection. Our findings help to resolve longstanding debates about spatial variation in evolutionary mechanisms linked to reproductive biology and also provide a comprehensive species-level data set for further studies of selection and phenotypic evolution in the context of global climatic change.
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Journal articleEwers RM, 2024,
An audacious approach to conservation.
, Trends Ecol Evol, Vol: 39, Pages: 995-1003New digital and sensor technology provides a huge opportunity to revolutionise conservation, but we lack a plan for deploying the technologies effectively. I argue that environmental research should be concentrated at a small number of 'super-sites' and that the concentrated knowledge from super-sites should be used to develop holistic ecosystem models. These, in turn, should be morphed into digital twin ecosystems by live connecting them with automated environmental monitoring programmes. Data-driven simulations can then help select pathways to achieve locally determined conservation goals, and digital twins could revise and adapt those decisions in real-time. This technology-heavy vision for 'smart conservation' provides a map toward a future defined by more flexible, more responsive, and more efficient management of natural environments.
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Journal articlePrentice IC, Balzarolo M, Bloomfield KJ, et al., 2024,
Principles for satellite monitoring of vegetation carbon uptake
, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Vol: 5, ISSN: 2662-138XRemote sensing-based numerical models harness satellite-borne measurements of light absorption by vegetation to estimate global patterns and trends in gross primary production (GPP)—the basis of the terrestrial carbon cycle. In this Perspective, we discuss the challenges in estimating GPP using these models and explore ways to improve their reliability. Current models vary substantially in their structure and produce differing results, especially as regards temporal trends in GPP. Many models invoke the light use efficiency (LUE) principle, which links light absorption to photosynthesis and plant biomass production, to estimate GPP. But these models vary in their assumptions about the controls of LUE and typically depend on many, poorly known parameters. Eco-evolutionary optimality principles can greatly reduce parameter requirements, and can improve the accuracy and consistency of GPP estimates and interpretations of their relationships with environmental drivers. Integrating data across different satellites and sensors, and utilising auxiliary optical band retrievals, could enhance spatiotemporal resolution and improve models' ability to detect aspects of vegetation physiology, including drought stress. Extending and harmonizing the eddy-covariance flux tower network will support systematic evaluation of GPP models. Enhancing the reliability of GPP and biomass production estimates will better characterise temporal variation and improve understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle’s response to environmental change.
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Journal articleWilliams J, Newbold T, Millard J, et al., 2024,
Important Crop Pollinators Respond Less Negatively to Anthropogenic Land Use Than Other Animals
, Ecology and Evolution, ISSN: 2045-7758Animal-mediated pollination is a key ecosystem service required to some extent by almost three-quarters of the leading human food crops in global food production. Anthropogenic pressures such as habitat loss and land-use intensification are causing shifts in ecological community composition, potentially resulting in declines in pollination services and impacting crop production. Previous research has often overlooked interspecific differences in pollination contribution, yet such differences mean that biodiversity declines will not necessarily negatively impact pollination. Here, we use a novel species-level ecosystem service contribution matrix along with mixed-effects models to explore how groups of terrestrial species who contribute differently to crop pollination respond globally to land-use type, land-use intensity, and availability of natural habitats in the surrounding landscape. We find that the species whose contribution to crop pollination is higher generally respond less negatively (and in some cases positively) to human disturbance of land, compared to species that contribute less or not at all to pollination. This result may be due to these high-contribution species being less sensitive to anthropogenic land conversions, which has led humans to being more reliant on them for crop pollination. However, it also suggests that there is potential for crop pollination to be resilient in the face of anthropogenic land conversions. With such a high proportion of food crops requiring animal-mediated pollination to some extent, understanding how anthropogenic landscapes impact ecological communities and the consequences for pollination is critical for ensuring food security.
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Journal articleStocker B, Dong N, Perkowski EA, et al., 2024,
Empirical evidence and theoretical understanding ofecosystem carbon and nitrogen cycle interactions
, New Phytologist, ISSN: 0028-646XInteractions between carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles in terrestrial ecosystems are simulated in advanced vegetation models, yet methodologies vary widely, leading to divergent simulations of past land C balance trends. This underscores the need to reassess our understanding of ecosystem processes, given recent theoretical advancements and empirical data. We review current knowledge, emphasising evidence from experiments and trait data compilations for vegetation responses to CO2 and N input, alongside theoretical and ecological principles for modelling. N fertilisation increases leaf N content but inconsistently enhances leaf-level photosynthetic capacity. Whole-plant responses include increased leaf area and biomass, with reduced root allocation and increased aboveground biomass. Elevated atmospheric CO2 also boosts leaf area and biomass but intensifies belowground allocation, depleting soil N and likely reducing N losses. Global leaf traits data confirm these findings, indicating that soil N availability influences leaf N content more than photosynthetic capacity. A demonstration model based on the functional balance hypothesis accurately predicts responses to N and CO2 fertilisation on tissue allocation, growth and biomass, offering a path to reduce uncertainty in global C cycle projections.
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Journal articleHancock PA, North A, Leach AW, et al., 2024,
The potential of gene drives in malaria vector species to control malaria in African environments.
, Nat Commun, Vol: 15Gene drives are a promising means of malaria control with the potential to cause sustained reductions in transmission. In real environments, however, their impacts will depend on local ecological and epidemiological factors. We develop a data-driven model to investigate the impacts of gene drives that causes vector population suppression. We simulate gene drive releases in sixteen ~ 12,000 km2 areas of west Africa that span variation in vector ecology and malaria prevalence, and estimate reductions in vector abundance, malaria prevalence and clinical cases. Average reductions in vector abundance ranged from 71.6-98.4% across areas, while impacts on malaria depended strongly on which vector species were targeted. When other new interventions including RTS,S vaccination and pyrethroid-PBO bednets were in place, at least 60% more clinical cases were averted when gene drives were added, demonstrating the benefits of integrated interventions. Our results show that different strategies for gene drive implementation may be required across different African settings.
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Journal articleFlintham E, Savolainen V, Otto S, et al., 2024,
The maintenance of genetic polymorphism underlyingsexually antagonistic traits
, Evolution Letters, ISSN: 2056-3744Selection often favours different trait values in males and females, leading to genetic conflicts between the sexes when traits have a shared genetic basis. Such sexual antagonism has beenproposed to maintain genetic polymorphism. However, this notion is based on insights from population genetic models of single loci with fixed fitness effects. It is thus unclear how readily polymorphism emerges from sex-specific selection acting on continuous traits, where fitness effects arisefrom the genotype-phenotype map and the fitness landscape. Here we model the evolution of a continuous trait that has a shared genetic basis but different optima in males and females, considering a wide variety of genetic architectures and fitness landscapes. For autosomal loci, the long-termmaintenance of polymorphism requires strong conflict between males and females that generatesuncharacteristic sex-specific fitness patterns. Instead, more plausible sex-specific fitness landscapestypically generate stabilising selection leading to an evolutionarily stable state that consists of a singlehomozygous genotype. Except for sites tightly linked to the sex determining region, our results indicate that genetic variation due to sexual antagonism should arise only rarely and often be transient,making these signatures challenging to detect in genomic data.
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Journal articleKontopoulos D-G, Sentis A, Daufresne M, et al., 2024,
No universal mathematical model for thermal performance curves across traits and taxonomic groups
, Nature Communications, Vol: 15, ISSN: 2041-1723In ectotherms, the performance of physiological, ecological and life-history traits universally increases with temperature to a maximum before decreasing again. Identifying the most appropriate thermal performance model for a specific trait type has broad applications, from metabolic modelling at the cellular level to forecasting the effects of climate change on population, ecosystem and disease transmission dynamics. To date, numerous mathematical models have been designed, but a thorough comparison among them is lacking. In particular, we do not know if certain models consistently outperform others and how factors such as sampling resolution and trait or organismal identity influence model performance. To fill this knowledge gap, we compile 2,739 thermal performance datasets from diverse traits and taxa, to which we fit a comprehensive set of 83 existing mathematical models. We detect remarkable variation in model performance that is not primarily driven by sampling resolution, trait type, or taxonomic information. Our results reveal a surprising lack of well-defined scenarios in which certain models are more appropriate than others. To aid researchers in selecting the appropriate set of models for any given dataset or research objective, we derive a classification of the 83 models based on the average similarity of their fits.
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Journal articlePalmer J, Samuelson AE, Gill RJ, et al., 2024,
Foraging distance distributions reveal how honeybee waggle dance recruitment varies with landscape
, Communications Biology, Vol: 7, ISSN: 2399-3642Honeybee (Apis mellifera) colonies use a unique collective foraging system, the waggle dance, to communicate and process the location of resources. Here, we present a means to quantify the effect of recruitment on colony forager allocation across the landscape by simply observing the waggle dance on the dancefloor. We show first, through a theoretical model, that recruitment leaves a characteristic imprint on the distance distribution of foraging sites that a colony visits, which varies according to the proportion of trips driven by individual search. Next, we fit this model to the real-world empirical distance distribution of forage sites visited by 20 honeybee colonies in urban and rural landscapes across South East England, obtained via dance decoding. We show that there is considerable variation in the use of dancing information in colony foraging, particularly in agri-rural landscapes. In our dataset, reliance on dancing increases as arable land gives way to built-up areas, suggesting that dancing may have the greatest impact on colony foraging in the complex and heterogeneous landscapes of forage-rich urban areas. Our model provides a tool to assess the relevance of this extraordinary behaviour across modern anthropogenic landscape types.
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Journal articleMatthews TJ, Triantis KA, Wayman JP, et al., 2024,
The global loss of avian functional and phylogenetic diversity from anthropogenic extinctions.
, Science, Vol: 386, Pages: 55-60Humans have been driving a global erosion of species richness for millennia, but the consequences of past extinctions for other dimensions of biodiversity-functional and phylogenetic diversity-are poorly understood. In this work, we show that, since the Late Pleistocene, the extinction of 610 bird species has caused a disproportionate loss of the global avian functional space along with ~3 billion years of unique evolutionary history. For island endemics, proportional losses have been even greater. Projected future extinctions of more than 1000 species over the next two centuries will incur further substantial reductions in functional and phylogenetic diversity. These results highlight the severe consequences of the ongoing biodiversity crisis and the urgent need to identify the ecological functions being lost through extinction.
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Journal articleCheaib A, Waring EF, McNellis R, et al., 2024,
Soil nitrogen supply exerts largest influence on leaf nitrogen in environments with the greatest leaf nitrogen demand
, Ecology Letters, ISSN: 1461-023X -
Journal articleMills MB, Both S, Jotan P, et al., 2024,
From tree to plot: investigating stem CO2 efflux and its drivers along a logging gradient in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo.
, New Phytol, Vol: 244, Pages: 91-103Stem respiration constitutes a substantial proportion of autotrophic respiration in forested ecosystems, but its drivers across different spatial scales and land-use gradients remain poorly understood. This study quantifies and examines the impact of logging disturbance on stem CO2 efflux (EA) in Malaysian Borneo. EA was quantified at tree- and stand-level in nine 1-ha plots over a logging gradient from heavily logged to old-growth using the static chamber method. Tree-level results showed higher EA per unit stem area in logged vs old-growth plots (37.0 ± 1.1 vs 26.92 ± 1.14 g C m-2 month-1). However, at stand-level, there was no difference in EA between logged and old-growth plots (6.7 ± 1.1 vs 6.0 ± 0.7 Mg C ha-1 yr-1) due to greater stem surface area in old-growth plots. Allocation to growth respiration and carbon use efficiency was significantly higher in logged plots. Variation in EA at both tree- and stand-level was driven by tree size, growth and differences in investment strategies between the forest types. These results reflect different resource allocation strategies and priorities, with a priority for growth in response to increased light availability in logged plots, while old-growth plots prioritise maintenance and cell structure.
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Journal articleKientega M, Clarkson CS, Traoré N, et al., 2024,
Whole-genome sequencing of major malaria vectors reveals the evolution of new insecticide resistance variants in a longitudinal study in Burkina Faso
, Malaria Journal, Vol: 23, ISSN: 1475-2875BACKGROUND: Intensive deployment of insecticide based malaria vector control tools resulted in the rapid evolution of phenotypes resistant to these chemicals. Understanding this process at the genomic level is important for the deployment of successful vector control interventions. Therefore, longitudinal sampling followed by whole genome sequencing (WGS) is necessary to understand how these evolutionary processes evolve over time. This study investigated the change in genetic structure and the evolution of the insecticide resistance variants in natural populations of Anopheles gambiae over time and space from 2012 to 2017 in Burkina Faso. METHODS: New genomic data have been generated from An. gambiae mosquitoes collected from three villages in the western part of Burkina Faso between 2012 and 2017. The samples were whole-genome sequenced and the data used in the An. gambiae 1000 genomes (Ag1000G) project as part of the Vector Observatory. Genomic data were analysed using the analysis pipeline previously designed by the Ag1000G project. RESULTS: The results showed similar and consistent nucleotide diversity and negative Tajima's D between An. gambiae sensu stricto (s.s.) and Anopheles coluzzii. Principal component analysis (PCA) and the fixation index (FST) showed a clear genetic structure in the An. gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) species. Genome-wide FST and H12 scans identified genomic regions under divergent selection that may have implications in the adaptation to ecological changes. Novel voltage-gated sodium channel pyrethroid resistance target-site alleles (V402L, I1527T) were identified at increasing frequencies alongside the established alleles (Vgsc-L995F, Vgsc-L995S and N1570Y) within the An. gambiae s.l. POPULATIONS: Organophosphate metabolic resistance markers were also identified, at increasing frequencies, within the An. gambiae s.s. populations from 2012 to 2017, including the SNP Ace1-G280S and its associated duplication. Variants simultaneously identifi
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Journal articleLi J, Prentice IC, 2024,
Global patterns of plant functional traits and their relationships to climate
, Communications Biology, Vol: 7, ISSN: 2399-3642Plant functional traits (FTs) determine growth, reproduction and survival strategies of plants adapted to their growth environment. Exploring global geographic patterns of FTs, their covariation and their relationships to climate are necessary steps towards better-founded predictions of how global environmental change will affect ecosystem composition. We compile an extensive global dataset for 16 FTs and characterise trait-trait and trait-climate relationships separately within non-woody, woody deciduous and woody evergreen plant groups, using multivariate analysis and generalised additive models (GAMs). Among the six major FTs considered, two dominant trait dimensions—representing plant size and the leaf economics spectrum (LES) respectively—are identified within all three groups. Size traits (plant height, diaspore mass) however are generally higher in warmer climates, while LES traits (leaf mass and nitrogen per area) are higher in drier climates. Larger leaves are associated principally with warmer winters in woody evergreens, but with wetter climates in non-woody plants. GAM-simulated global patterns for all 16 FTs explain up to three-quarters of global trait variation. Global maps obtained by upscaling GAMs are broadly in agreement with iNaturalist citizen-science FT data. This analysis contributes to the foundations for global trait-based ecosystem modelling by demonstrating universal relationships between FTs and climate.
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Journal articleCavan EL, Mackay N, Hill SL, et al., 2024,
Antarctic krill sequester similar amounts of carbon to key coastal blue carbon habitats
, Nature Communications, Vol: 15, ISSN: 2041-1723The carbon sequestration potential of open-ocean pelagic ecosystems is vastly under-reported compared to coastal vegetation ‘blue carbon’ systems. Here we show that just a single pelagic harvested species, Antarctic krill, sequesters a similar amount of carbon through its sinking faecal pellets as marshes, mangroves and seagrass. Due to their massive population biomass, fast-sinking faecal pellets and the modest depths that pellets need to reach to achieve sequestration (mean is 381 m), Antarctic krill faecal pellets sequester 20 MtC per productive season (spring to early Autumn). This is equates USD$ 4 − 46 billion depending on the price of carbon, with krill pellet carbon stored for at least 100 years and with some reaching as far as the North Pacific. Antarctic krill are being impacted by rapid polar climate change and an expanding fishery, thus krill populations and their habitat warrant protection to preserve this valuable carbon sink.
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Journal articleHaas O, Keeping T, Gomez-Dans J, et al., 2024,
The global drivers of wildfire
, Frontiers in Environmental Science, Vol: 12, ISSN: 2296-665XChanges in wildfire regimes are of growing concern and raise issues about how well we can model risks in a changing climate. Process-based coupled fire-vegetation models, used to project future wildfire regimes, capture many aspects of wildfire regimes poorly. However, there is now a wealth of information from empirical studies on the climate, vegetation, topography and human activity controls on wildfire regimes. The measures used to quantify these controls vary among studies, but certain variables consistently emerge as the most important: gross primary production as a measure of fuel availability, vegetation cover as a measure of fuel continuity, and atmospheric humidity as a measure of fuel drying. Contrary to popular perception, ignitions are generally not a limiting factor for wildfires. In this review, we describe how empirical fire models implement wildfire processes, synthesise current understanding of the controls on wildfire extent and severity, and suggest ways in which fire modelling could be improved.• Empirical analyses of the controls on wildfires consistently identify vegetation properties associated with fuel availability and continuity and climate factors associated with fuel drying as the most important influences on wildfire extent and severity. • Ignitions, whether anthropogenic or natural, are generally not limiting.• Fire size, burnt area and fire intensity are influenced by different factors; current relationships between these aspects of wildfire could become decoupled in an altered climate. • Some hypotheses embedded in 'process-based' fire-vegetation models are inconsistent with empirical evidence, implying a need for a re-design.
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Journal articleMorales-Castilla I, Davies TJ, Legault G, et al., 2024,
Phylogenetic estimates of species-level phenology improve ecological forecasting
, Nature Climate Change, Vol: 14, Pages: 989-995, ISSN: 1758-678XThe ability to adapt to climate change requires accurate ecological forecasting. Current forecasts, however, have failed to capture important variability in biological responses, especially across species. Here we present a new method using Bayesian hierarchical phylogenetic models and show that species-level differences are larger than the average differences between cues. Applying our method to phenological experiments manipulating temperature and day length we show an underlying phylogenetic structure in plant phenological responses to temperature cues, whereas responses to photoperiod appear weaker, more uniform across species and less phylogenetically constrained. We thus illustrate how a focus on certain clades can bias prediction, but that predictions may be improved by integrating information on phylogeny to better estimate species-level responses. Our approach provides an advance in ecological forecasting, with implications for predicting the impacts of climate change and other anthropogenic forces on ecosystems.
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Journal articleFlo V, Joshi J, Sabot M, et al., 2024,
Incorporating photosynthetic acclimation improves stomatal optimisation models
, Plant, Cell and Environment, Vol: 47, Pages: 3478-3493, ISSN: 0140-7791Stomatal opening in plant leaves is regulated through a balance of carbon and water exchange under different environmental conditions. Accurate estimation of stomatal regulation is crucial for understanding how plants respond to changing environmental conditions, particularly under climate change. A new generation of optimality-based modelling schemes determines instantaneous stomatal responses from a balance of trade-offs between carbon gains and hydraulic costs, but most such schemes do not account for biochemical acclimation in response to drought. Here, we compare the performance of six instantaneous stomatal optimisation models with and without accounting for photosynthetic acclimation. Using experimental data from 37 plant species, we found that accounting for photosynthetic acclimation improves the prediction of carbon assimilation in a majority of the tested models. Photosynthetic acclimation contributed significantly to the reduction of photosynthesis under drought conditions in all tested models. Drought effects on photosynthesis could not accurately be explained by the hydraulic impairment functions embedded in the stomatal models alone, indicating that photosynthetic acclimation must be considered to improve estimates of carbon assimilation during drought.
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