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Conference paperOwens MJ, Riley P, Horbury T, 2017,
The Role of Empirical Space-Weather Models (in a World of Physics-Based Numerical Simulations)
, IAU Symposia IAUS 335: Space Weather of the Heliosphere: Processes and Forecasts, Pages: 254-257, ISSN: 1743-9213Copyright © International Astronomical Union 2018. Advanced forecasting of space weather requires prediction of near-Earth solar-wind conditions on the basis of remote solar observations. This is typically achieved using numerical magnetohydrodynamic models initiated by photospheric magnetic field observations. The accuracy of such forecasts is being continually improved through better numerics, better determination of the boundary conditions and better representation of the underlying physical processes. Thus it is not unreasonable to conclude that simple, empirical solar-wind forecasts have been rendered obsolete. However, empirical models arguably have more to contribute now than ever before. In addition to providing quick, cheap, independent forecasts, simple empirical models aid in numerical model validation and verification, and add value to numerical model forecasts through parameterization, uncertainty estimation and 'downscaling' of sub-grid processes.
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Journal articleSparks NJ, Hardwick SR, Schmid M, et al., 2017,
IMAGE: a multivariate multi-site stochastic weather generator for European weather and climate
, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Vol: 32, Pages: 771-784, ISSN: 1436-3240Capturing the spatial and temporal correlation of multiple variables in a weather generator is challenging. A new massively multi-site, multivariate daily stochastic weather generator called IMAGE is presented here. It models temperature and precipitation variables as latent Gaussian variables with temporal behaviour governed by an auto-regressive model whose residuals and parameters are correlated through resampling of principle component time series of empirical orthogonal function modes. A case study using European climate data demonstrates the model’s ability to reproduce extreme events of temperature and precipitation. The ability to capture the spatial and temporal extent of extremes using a modified Climate Extremes Index is demonstrated. Importantly, the model generates events covering not observed temporal and spatial scales giving new insights for risk management purposes.
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Journal articleMasters A, Sulaiman A, Stawarz L, et al., 2017,
An in situ Comparison of Electron Acceleration at Collisionless Shocks under Differing Upstream Magnetic Field Orientations
, Astrophysical Journal, Vol: 843, ISSN: 1538-4357A leading explanation for the origin of Galactic cosmic rays is acceleration at high-Mach number shock waves in the collisionless plasma surrounding young supernova remnants. Evidence for this is provided by multi-wavelength non-thermal emission thought to be associated with ultrarelativistic electrons at these shocks. However, the dependence of the electron acceleration process on the orientation of the upstream magnetic field with respect to the local normal to the shock front (quasi-parallel/quasi-perpendicular) is debated. Cassini spacecraft observations at Saturn's bow shock have revealed examples of electron acceleration under quasi-perpendicular conditions, and the first in situ evidence of electron acceleration at a quasi-parallel shock. Here we use Cassini data to make the first comparison between energy spectra of locally accelerated electrons under these differing upstream magnetic field regimes. We present data taken during a quasi-perpendicular shock crossing on 2008 March 8 and during a quasi-parallel shock crossing on 2007 February 3, highlighting that both were associated with electron acceleration to at least MeV energies. The magnetic signature of the quasi-perpendicular crossing has a relatively sharp upstream–downstream transition, and energetic electrons were detected close to the transition and immediately downstream. The magnetic transition at the quasi-parallel crossing is less clear, energetic electrons were encountered upstream and downstream, and the electron energy spectrum is harder above ~100 keV. We discuss whether the acceleration is consistent with diffusive shock acceleration theory in each case, and suggest that the quasi-parallel spectral break is due to an energy-dependent interaction between the electrons and short, large-amplitude magnetic structures.
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Journal articleMessori G, Geen R, Czaja A, 2017,
On the Spatial and Temporal Variability of Atmospheric Heat Transport in a Hierarchy of Models
, JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, Vol: 74, Pages: 2163-2189, ISSN: 0022-4928 -
Journal articleNilsson H, Wieser GS, Behar E, et al., 2017,
Erratum: Evolution of the ion environment of comet 67P during the Rosetta mission as seen by RPC-ICA
, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol: 469, Pages: S804-S804, ISSN: 0035-8711 -
Journal articleLiu TZ, Angelopoulos V, Hietala H, 2017,
Energetic ion leakage from foreshock transient cores
, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS, Vol: 122, Pages: 7209-7225, ISSN: 2169-9380 -
Journal articleLiu TZ, Angelopoulos V, Hietala H, et al., 2017,
Statistical study of particle acceleration in the core of foreshock transients
, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS, Vol: 122, Pages: 7197-7208, ISSN: 2169-9380 -
Journal articleMyhre G, Forster PM, Samset BH, et al., 2017,
PDRMIP A Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project-Protocol and Preliminary Results
, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol: 98, Pages: 1185-1198, ISSN: 0003-0007As the global temperature increases with changing climate, precipitation rates and patterns are affected through a wide range of physical mechanisms. The globally averaged intensity of extreme precipitation also changes more rapidly than the globally averaged precipitation rate. While some aspects of the regional variation in precipitation predicted by climate models appear robust, there is still a large degree of intermodel differences unaccounted for. Individual drivers of climate change initially alter the energy budget of the atmosphere, leading to distinct rapid adjustments involving changes in precipitation. Differences in how these rapid adjustment processes manifest themselves within models are likely to explain a large fraction of the present model spread and better quantifications are needed to improve precipitation predictions. Here, the authors introduce the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where a set of idealized experiments designed to understand the role of different climate forcing mechanisms were performed by a large set of climate models. PDRMIP focuses on understanding how precipitation changes relating to rapid adjustments and slower responses to climate forcings are represented across models. Initial results show that rapid adjustments account for large regional differences in hydrological sensitivity across multiple drivers. The PDRMIP results are expected to dramatically improve understanding of the causes of the present diversity in future climate projections.
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Journal articleGoldstein R, Burch JL, Mokashi P, et al., 2017,
Two years of solar wind and pickup ion measurements at comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko
, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol: 469, Pages: S262-S267, ISSN: 0035-8711The Ion and Electron Sensor (IES) as well as other members of the Rosetta Plasma Consortium (RPC) on board the Rosetta spacecraft (S/C) measured the characteristics of the solar wind almost continuously since its arrival at 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko (CG) in 2014 August. An important process at a comet is the so-called pickup process in which a newly ionized atom or molecule begins gyrating about the interplanetary magnetic field, is accelerated in the process and is carried along with the solar wind. Within a month after comet arrival, while Rosetta was <100 km from CG, we began to observe low-energy (<20 eV) positive ions. We believe that these are newly formed from cometary neutrals near Rosetta and attracted to the negative S/C potential. These ions were in the early phase of pickup and had not yet reached the energy they would after at least one full gyration about the magnetic field. As CG increased its activity, the flux and energy of the measured pickup ions increased intermittently while the solar wind appeared intermittently as well. By about 2015 end of April, the solar wind had become very faint until it eventually disappeared from the IES field of view. We then began to see ions at the highest energy levels of IES, >10 keV for a few days and then intermittently through the remainder of the mission, but lower energy (a few keV) pickup ions were also observed. As of 2016 early February, the solar wind reappeared more consistently. We believe that the disappearance of the solar wind in the IES field of view is the result of interaction with the pickup ions and the eventual formation of a cavity that excluded the solar wind.
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Journal articleHenri P, Vallières X, Hajra R, et al., 2017,
Diamagnetic region(s): structure of the unmagnetized plasma around Comet 67P/CG
, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol: 469, Pages: S372-S379, ISSN: 0035-8711The ESA’s comet chaser Rosetta has monitored the evolution of the ionized atmosphere of comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko (67P/CG) and its interaction with the solar wind, during more than 2 yr. Around perihelion, while the cometary outgassing rate was highest, Rosetta crossed hundreds of unmagnetized regions, but did not seem to have crossed a large-scale diamagnetic cavity as anticipated. Using in situ Rosetta observations, we characterize the structure of the unmagnetized plasma found around comet 67P/CG. Plasma density measurements from RPC-MIP are analysed in the unmagnetized regions identified with RPC-MAG. The plasma observations are discussed in the context of the cometary escaping neutral atmosphere, observed by ROSINA/COPS. The plasma density in the different diamagnetic regions crossed by Rosetta ranges from ∼100 to ∼1500 cm−3. They exhibit a remarkably systematic behaviour that essentially depends on the comet activity and the cometary ionosphere expansion. An effective total ionization frequency is obtained from in situ observations during the high outgassing activity phase of comet 67P/CG. Although several diamagnetic regions have been crossed over a large range of distances to the comet nucleus (from 50 to 400 km) and to the Sun (1.25–2.4 au), in situ observations give strong evidence for a single diamagnetic region, located close to the electron exobase. Moreover, the observations are consistent with an unstable contact surface that can locally extend up to about 10 times the electron exobase.
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Journal articleNilsson H, Wieser GS, Behar E, et al., 2017,
Evolution of the ion environment of comet 67P during the Rosetta mission as seen by RPC-ICA
, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol: 469, Pages: S252-S261, ISSN: 0035-8711Rosetta has followed comet 67P from low activity at more than 3.6 au heliocentric distance to high activity at perihelion (1.24 au) and then out again. We provide a general overview of the evolution of the dynamic ion environment using data from the RPC-ICA ion spectrometer. We discuss where Rosetta was located within the evolving comet magnetosphere. For the initial observations, the solar wind permeated all of the coma. In 2015 mid-April, the solar wind started to disappear from the observation region, to re-appear again in 2015 December. Low-energy cometary ions were seen at first when Rosetta was about 100 km from the nucleus at 3.6 au, and soon after consistently throughout the mission except during the excursions to farther distances from the comet. The observed flux of low-energy ions was relatively constant due to Rosetta's orbit changing with comet activity. Accelerated cometary ions, moving mainly in the antisunward direction gradually became more common as comet activity increased. These accelerated cometary ions kept being observed also after the solar wind disappeared from the location of Rosetta, with somewhat higher fluxes further away from the nucleus. Around perihelion, when Rosetta was relatively deep within the comet magnetosphere, the fluxes of accelerated cometary ions decreased, as did their maximum energy. The disappearance of more energetic cometary ions at close distance during high activity is suggested to be due to a flow pattern where these ions flow around the obstacle of the denser coma or due to charge exchange losses.
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Journal articleCeppi P, Brient F, Zelinka MD, et al., 2017,
Cloud feedback mechanisms and their representation in global climate models
, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: WIREs Climate Change, Vol: 8, ISSN: 1757-7780Cloud feedback—the change in top‐of‐atmosphere radiative flux resulting from the cloud response to warming—constitutes by far the largest source of uncertainty in the climate response to CO2 forcing simulated by global climate models (GCMs). We review the main mechanisms for cloud feedbacks, and discuss their representation in climate models and the sources of intermodel spread. Global‐mean cloud feedback in GCMs results from three main effects: (1) rising free‐tropospheric clouds (a positive longwave effect); (2) decreasing tropical low cloud amount (a positive shortwave [SW] effect); (3) increasing high‐latitude low cloud optical depth (a negative SW effect). These cloud responses simulated by GCMs are qualitatively supported by theory, high‐resolution modeling, and observations. Rising high clouds are consistent with the fixed anvil temperature (FAT) hypothesis, whereby enhanced upper‐tropospheric radiative cooling causes anvil cloud tops to remain at a nearly fixed temperature as the atmosphere warms. Tropical low cloud amount decreases are driven by a delicate balance between the effects of vertical turbulent fluxes, radiative cooling, large‐scale subsidence, and lower‐tropospheric stability on the boundary‐layer moisture budget. High‐latitude low cloud optical depth increases are dominated by phase changes in mixed‐phase clouds. The causes of intermodel spread in cloud feedback are discussed, focusing particularly on the role of unresolved parameterized processes such as cloud microphysics, turbulence, and convection.
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Journal articleKinrade J, Badman SV, Bunce EJ, et al., 2017,
An isolated, bright cusp aurora at Saturn
, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS, Vol: 122, Pages: 6121-6138, ISSN: 2169-9380Saturn's dayside aurora displays a number of morphological features poleward of the main emission region. We present an unusual morphology captured by the Hubble Space Telescope on 14 June 2014 (day 165), where for 2 h, Saturn's FUV aurora faded almost entirely, with the exception of a distinct emission spot at high latitude. The spot remained fixed in local time between 10 and 15 LT and moved poleward to a minimum colatitude of ~4°. It was bright and persistent, displaying intensities of up to 49 kR over a lifetime of 2 h. Interestingly, the spot constituted the entirety of the northern auroral emission, with no emissions present at any other local time—including Saturn's characteristic dawn arc, the complete absence of which is rarely observed. Solar wind parameters from propagation models, together with a Cassini magnetopause crossing and solar wind encounter, indicate that Saturn's magnetosphere was likely to have been embedded in a rarefaction region, resulting in an expanded magnetosphere configuration during the interval. We infer that the spot was sustained by reconnection either poleward of the cusp or at low latitudes under a strong component of interplanetary magnetic field transverse to the solar wind flow. The subsequent poleward motion could then arise from either reconfiguration of successive open field lines across the polar cap or convection of newly opened field lines. We also consider the possible modulation of the feature by planetary period rotating current systems.
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Journal articleVigren E, André M, Edberg NJT, et al., 2017,
Effective ion speeds at ∼200–250 km from comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko near perihelion
, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol: 469, Pages: S142-S148, ISSN: 0035-8711In 2015 August, comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko, the target comet of the ESA Rosetta mission, reached its perihelion at ∼1.24 au. Here, we estimate for a three-day period near perihelion, effective ion speeds at distances ∼200–250 km from the nucleus. We utilize two different methods combining measurements from the Rosetta Plasma Consortium (RPC)/Mutual Impedance Probe with measurements either from the RPC/Langmuir Probe or from the Rosetta Orbiter Spectrometer for Ion and Neutral Analysis (ROSINA)/Comet Pressure Sensor (COPS) (the latter method can only be applied to estimate the effective ion drift speed). The obtained ion speeds, typically in the range 2–8 km s−1, are markedly higher than the expected neutral outflow velocity of ∼1 km s−1. This indicates that the ions were de-coupled from the neutrals before reaching the spacecraft location and that they had undergone acceleration along electric fields, not necessarily limited to acceleration along ambipolar electric fields in the radial direction. For the limited time period studied, we see indications that at increasing distances from the nucleus, the fraction of the ions’ kinetic energy associated with radial drift motion is decreasing.
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Journal articleHeritier KL, Henri P, Vallières X, et al., 2017,
Vertical structure of the near-surface expanding ionosphere of comet 67P probed by Rosetta
, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol: 469, Pages: S118-S129, ISSN: 0035-8711The plasma environment has been measured for the first time near the surface of a comet. This unique data set has been acquired at 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko during ESA/Rosetta spacecraft's final descent on 2016 September 30. The heliocentric distance was 3.8 au and the comet was weakly outgassing. Electron density was continuously measured with Rosetta Plasma Consortium (RPC)–Mutual Impedance Probe (MIP) and RPC–LAngmuir Probe (LAP) during the descent from a cometocentric distance of 20 km down to the surface. Data set from both instruments have been cross-calibrated for redundancy and accuracy. To analyse this data set, we have developed a model driven by Rosetta Orbiter Spectrometer for Ion and Neutral Analysis–COmetary Pressure Sensor total neutral density. The two ionization sources considered are solar extreme ultraviolet radiation and energetic electrons. The latter are estimated from the RPC–Ion and Electron Sensor (IES) and corrected for the spacecraft potential probed by RPC–LAP. We have compared the results of the model to the electron densities measured by RPC–MIP and RPC–LAP at the location of the spacecraft. We find good agreement between observed and modelled electron densities. The energetic electrons have access to the surface of the nucleus and contribute as the main ionization source. As predicted, the measurements exhibit a peak in the ionospheric density close to the surface. The location and magnitude of the peak are estimated analytically. The measured ionospheric densities cannot be explained with a constant outflow velocity model. The use of a neutral model with an expanding outflow is critical to explain the plasma observations.
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Journal articleHaigh JD, 2017,
acp-2017-477
, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, ISSN: 1680-7316 -
Journal articleOrr JC, Najjar RG, Aumont O, et al., 2017,
Biogeochemical protocols and diagnostics for the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)
, Geoscientific Model Development, Vol: 10, Pages: 2169-2199, ISSN: 1991-959XThe Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) focuses on the physics and biogeochemistry of the ocean component of Earth system models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). OMIP aims to provide standard protocols and diagnostics for ocean models, while offering a forum to promote their common assessment and improvement. It also offers to compare solutions of the same ocean models when forced with reanalysis data (OMIP simulations) vs. when integrated within fully coupled Earth system models (CMIP6). Here we detail simulation protocols and diagnostics for OMIP's biogeochemical and inert chemical tracers. These passive-tracer simulations will be coupled to ocean circulation models, initialized with observational data or output from a model spin-up, and forced by repeating the 1948–2009 surface fluxes of heat, fresh water, and momentum. These so-called OMIP-BGC simulations include three inert chemical tracers (CFC-11, CFC-12, SF6) and biogeochemical tracers (e.g., dissolved inorganic carbon, carbon isotopes, alkalinity, nutrients, and oxygen). Modelers will use their preferred prognostic BGC model but should follow common guidelines for gas exchange and carbonate chemistry. Simulations include both natural and total carbon tracers. The required forced simulation (omip1) will be initialized with gridded observational climatologies. An optional forced simulation (omip1-spunup) will be initialized instead with BGC fields from a long model spin-up, preferably for 2000 years or more, and forced by repeating the same 62-year meteorological forcing. That optional run will also include abiotic tracers of total dissolved inorganic carbon and radiocarbon, CTabio and 14CTabio, to assess deep-ocean ventilation and distinguish the role of physics vs. biology. These simulations will be forced by observed atmospheric histories of the three inert gases and CO2 as well as carbon isotope ratios of CO2. OMIP-BGC simulation protocols
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Journal articleRadioti A, Grodent D, Gerard JC, et al., 2017,
Stagnation of Saturn’s auroral emission at noon
, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol: 122, Pages: 6078-6087, ISSN: 2169-9402Auroral emissions serve as a powerful tool to investigate themagnetospheric processes at Saturn. Solar wind and internally driven processes largely control Saturn’s auroral morphology. The main auroral emission at Saturn is suggested to be connected with the magnetosphere - solar wind interaction, through the flow shear related to rotational dynamics. Dawn auroral enhancements are associated with intense field-aligned currents generated by hot tenuous plasma carried towards the planet in fast moving flux tubes as they return from tail reconnection site to the dayside. In this work we demonstrate, based on Cassini auroral observations, that the main auroral emission at Saturn, as it rotates from midnight to dusk via noon, occasionally stagnates near noon over a couple of hours. In half of the sequences examined, the auroral emission is blocked close to noon, while in three out of four cases, the blockage of the auroral emission is accompanied with signatures of dayside reconnection. We discuss some possible interpretations of the auroral ’blockage’ near noon. According to the first one it could be related to local time variations of the flow shear close to noon. Auroral local time variations are also suggested to be initiated by radial transport process. Alternatively, the auroral blockage at noon could be associated with a plasma circulation theory, according to which tenuously populated closed flux tubes as they return from the nightside to the morning sector experience a blockage in the equatorial plane and they cannot rotate beyond noon.
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Journal articleMistry R, Eastwood JP, Phan TD, et al., 2017,
Statistical properties of solar wind reconnection exhausts
, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, Vol: 122, Pages: 5895-5909, ISSN: 2169-9380The solar wind provides an excellent opportunity to study the exhausts that form as a result of symmetric guide field reconnection, where spacecraft rapidly cross the exhausts far downstream of the X line. We study the statistical properties of solar wind exhausts through a superposed epoch analysis of 188 events observed at 1 AU using the Wind spacecraft. These events span a range of guide fields of 0 to 10 times the reconnecting magnetic field and inflow region plasma beta of 0.1 to 6.6. This analysis reveals that the out-of-plane magnetic field is enhanced within solar wind exhausts. Furthermore, the amount by which the plasma density and ion temperature increase from inflow region to exhaust region is found to be a function of the inflow region plasma beta and reconnection guide field, which explains the lack of these enhancements in a subset of previous observations. This dependence is consistent with the scaling of ion heating with inflow region Alfven speed, which is measured to be consistent with previous observations in the solar wind and at the magnetopause.
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Journal articleParfitt R, Czaja A, Seo H, 2017,
A simple diagnostic for the detection of atmospheric fronts
, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 44, Pages: 4351-4358, ISSN: 1944-8007In this article, a simple diagnostic to identify atmospheric fronts objectively from gridded data sets is presented. For this diagnostic, fronts are identified as regions where the normalized product of the isobaric relative vorticity and horizontal temperature gradient exceeds a threshold value. The purpose is to introduce a method that is both robust and particularly straightforward in calculation. A climatology of atmospheric fronts, as well as the identification of an individual frontal system, is computed using this diagnostic. These are subsequently compared to a more traditional frontal detection method and the similarities and differences discussed.
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Journal articleGryspeerdt E, Quaas J, Ferrachat S, et al., 2017,
Constraining the instantaneous aerosol influence on cloud albedo
, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol: 114, Pages: 4899-4904, ISSN: 1091-6490Much of the uncertainty in estimates of the anthropogenic forcing of climate change comes from uncertainties in the instantaneous effect of aerosols on cloud albedo, known as the Twomey effect or the radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions (RFaci), a component of the total or effective radiative forcing. Because aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei can have a strong influence on the cloud droplet number concentration (Nd), previous studies have used the sensitivity of the Nd to aerosol properties as a constraint on the strength of the RFaci. However, recent studies have suggested that relationships between aerosol and cloud properties in the present-day climate may not be suitable for determining the sensitivity of the Nd to anthropogenic aerosol perturbations. Using an ensemble of global aerosol–climate models, this study demonstrates how joint histograms between Nd and aerosol properties can account for many of the issues raised by previous studies. It shows that if the anthropogenic contribution to the aerosol is known, the RFaci can be diagnosed to within 20% of its actual value. The accuracy of different aerosol proxies for diagnosing the RFaci is investigated, confirming that using the aerosol optical depth significantly underestimates the strength of the aerosol–cloud interactions in satellite data.
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Journal articleOwens MJ, Riley P, Horbury TS, 2017,
Probabilistic Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Forecasting Using an Analogue Ensemble or "Similar Day" Approach
, Solar Physics, Vol: 292, ISSN: 0038-0938Effective space-weather prediction and mitigation requires accurate forecastingof near-Earth solar-wind conditions. Numerical magnetohydrodynamic models of the solarwind, driven by remote solar observations, are gaining skill at forecasting the large-scalesolar-wind features that give rise to near-Earth variations over days and weeks. There remainsa need for accurate short-term (hours to days) solar-wind forecasts, however. In thisstudy we investigate the analogue ensemble (AnEn), or “similar day”, approach that wasdeveloped for atmospheric weather forecasting. The central premise of the AnEn is thatpast variations that are analogous or similar to current conditions can be used to provide agood estimate of future variations. By considering an ensemble of past analogues, the AnEnforecast is inherently probabilistic and provides a measure of the forecast uncertainty. Weshow that forecasts of solar-wind speed can be improved by considering both speed anddensity when determining past analogues, whereas forecasts of the out-of-ecliptic magneticfield [BN] are improved by also considering the in-ecliptic magnetic-field components. Ingeneral, the best forecasts are found by considering only the previous 6 – 12 hours of observations.Using these parameters, the AnEn provides a valuable probabilistic forecast forsolar-wind speed, density, and in-ecliptic magnetic field over lead times from a few hoursto around four days. For BN, which is central to space-weather disturbance, the AnEn onlyprovides a valuable forecast out to around six to seven hours. As the inherent predictabilityof this parameter is low, this is still likely a marked improvement over other forecast methods.We also investigate the use of the AnEn in forecasting geomagnetic indices Dst and Kp.The AnEn provides a valuable probabilistic forecast of both indices out to around four days.We outline a number of future improvements to AnEn forecasts of near-Earth solar-windand geomagnetic conditions.
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Journal articleYan B, Martinez-Monteagudo SI, Cooperstone JL, et al., 2017,
Impact of Thermal and Pressure-Based Technologies on Carotenoid Retention and Quality Attributes in Tomato Juice
, FOOD AND BIOPROCESS TECHNOLOGY, Vol: 10, Pages: 808-818, ISSN: 1935-5130- Author Web Link
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- Citations: 25
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Journal articleWilder FD, Ergun RE, Newman DL, et al., 2017,
The nonlinear behavior of whistler waves at the reconnecting dayside magnetopause as observed by the Magnetospheric Multiscale mission: A case study
, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-SPACE PHYSICS, Vol: 122, Pages: 5487-5501, ISSN: 2169-9380- Author Web Link
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- Citations: 21
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Journal articleInnocenti ME, Cazzola E, Mistry R, et al., 2017,
Switch-off slow shock/rotational discontinuity structures in collisionless magnetic reconnection: What to look for in satellite observations
, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 44, Pages: 3447-3455, ISSN: 0094-8276In Innocenti et al. (2015) we have observed and characterized for the first time Petschek-like switch-off slow shock/rotational discontinuity (SO-SS/RD) compound structures in a 2-D fully kinetic simulation of collisionless magnetic reconnection. Observing these structures in the solar wind or in the magnetotail would corroborate the possibility that Petschek exhausts develop in collisionless media as a result of single X point collisionless reconnection. Here we highlight their signatures in simulations with the aim of easing their identification in observations. The most notable signatures include a four-peaked ion current profile in the out-of-plane direction, associated ion distribution functions, increased electron and ion anisotropy downstream the SS, and increased electron agyrotropy downstream the RDs.
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Journal articleErgun RE, Chen L-J, Wilder FD, et al., 2017,
Drift waves, intense parallel electric fields, and turbulence associated with asymmetric magnetic reconnection at the magnetopause
, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 44, Pages: 2978-2986, ISSN: 0094-8276Observations of magnetic reconnection at Earth's magnetopause often display asymmetric structures that are accompanied by strong magnetic field (B) fluctuations and large-amplitude parallel electric fields (E||). The B turbulence is most intense at frequencies above the ion cyclotron frequency and below the lower hybrid frequency. The B fluctuations are consistent with a thin, oscillating current sheet that is corrugated along the electron flow direction (along the X line), which is a type of electromagnetic drift wave. Near the X line, electron flow is primarily due to a Hall electric field, which diverts ion flow in asymmetric reconnection and accompanies the instability. Importantly, the drift waves appear to drive strong parallel currents which, in turn, generate large-amplitude (~100 mV/m) E|| in the form of nonlinear waves and structures. These observations suggest that turbulence may be common in asymmetric reconnection, penetrate into the electron diffusion region, and possibly influence the magnetic reconnection process.
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Journal articleHellinger P, Landi S, Matteini L, et al., 2017,
Mirror Instability in the Turbulent Solar Wind
, ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 838, ISSN: 0004-637XThe relationship between a decaying strong turbulence and the mirror instability in a slowly expanding plasma is investigated using two-dimensional hybrid expanding box simulations. We impose an initial ambient magnetic field perpendicular to the simulation box, and we start with a spectrum of large-scale, linearly polarized, random-phase Alfvénic fluctuations that have energy equipartition between kinetic and magnetic fluctuations and a vanishing correlation between the two fields. A turbulent cascade rapidly develops, magnetic field fluctuations exhibit a Kolmogorov-like power-law spectrum at large scales and a steeper spectrum at sub-ion scales. The imposed expansion (taking a strictly transverse ambient magnetic field) leads to the generation of an important perpendicular proton temperature anisotropy that eventually drives the mirror instability. This instability generates large-amplitude, nonpropagating, compressible, pressure-balanced magnetic structures in a form of magnetic enhancements/humps that reduce the perpendicular temperature anisotropy.
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Journal articleHoang M, Altwegg K, Balsiger H, et al., 2017,
The heterogeneous coma of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko as seen by ROSINA: H <inf>2</inf> O, CO <inf>2</inf>, and CO from September 2014 to February 2016
, Astronomy and Astrophysics, Vol: 600, ISSN: 0004-6361Context. The ESA Rosetta mission has been investigating the environment of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P) since August 2014. Among the experiments on board the spacecraft, the ROSINA experiment (Rosetta Orbiter Spectrometer for Ion and Neutral Analysis) includes two mass spectrometers to analyse the composition of neutrals and ions and a COmet Pressure Sensor (COPS) to monitor the density and velocity of neutrals in the coma. Aims. We study heterogeneities in the coma during three periods starting in October 2014 (summer in the northern hemisphere) and ending in February 2016 (end of winter in the northern hemisphere). We provide a detailed description of the main volatiles dynamics (H2O, CO2, CO) and their abundance ratios. Methods. We analysed and compared the data of the Reflectron-Type Time-Of-Flight (RTOF) mass spectrometer with data from both the Double Focusing Mass Spectrometer (DFMS) and COPS during the comet escort phase. This comparison has demonstrated that the observations performed with each ROSINA sensor are indeed consistent. Furthermore, we used a Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) model to compare modelled densitites with in situ detections. Results. Our analysis shows how the active regions of the main volatiles evolve with the seasons with a variability mostly driven by the illumination conditions; this is the case except for an unexpected dichotomy suggesting the presence of a dust layer containing water deposited in the northern hemisphere during previous perihelions hiding the presence of CO2. The influence of various parameters is investigated in detail: distance to the comet, heliocentric distance, longitude and latitude of sub-satellite point, local time, and phase angle.
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Journal articleVanniere B, Czaja A, Dacre HF, 2017,
Contribution of the cold sector of extratropical cyclones to mean state features over the Gulf Stream in winter
, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Vol: 143, Pages: 1990-2000, ISSN: 0035-9009 -
Journal articleParfitt R, Czaja A, Kwon Y-O, 2017,
The impact of SST resolution change in the ERA-Interim reanalysis on wintertime Gulf Stream frontal air-sea interaction
, GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, Vol: 44, Pages: 3246-3254, ISSN: 0094-8276This paper examines the sensitivity to a change in sea surface temperature (SST) resolution of the interaction between atmospheric and oceanic fronts in the Gulf Stream region in the ERA-Interim reanalysis data set. Two periods are considered, January 1979 to December 2001 (SST resolution 1° × 1°) and December 2010 to February 2016 (SST resolution 0.05° × 0.05°). The winter season from the latter 6 years of high-resolution SST is compared against six random periods of six wintertime seasons from the low-resolution SST period, to assess the robustness of the result against natural climate variability. In all comparisons, a significant change in frontal air-sea sensible heat flux exchange is found that is highly correlated to the change in mean SST gradient. This leads to both increases and decreases in occurrence of atmospheric fronts and mean precipitation of up to 30%. These results reemphasize the importance of high SST resolution in resolving the influence of oceanic fronts on weather and climate.
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