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@article{Teoh:2022:10.5194/acp-22-10919-2022,
author = {Teoh, R and Schumann, U and Gryspeerdt, E and Shapiro, M and Molloy, J and Koudis, G and Voigt, C and Stettler, MEJ},
doi = {10.5194/acp-22-10919-2022},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
pages = {10919--10935},
title = {Aviation contrail climate effects in the North Atlantic from 2016 to 2021},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10919-2022},
volume = {22},
year = {2022}
}
TY - JOUR
AB - Around 5 % of anthropogenic radiative forcing (RF) is attributed to aviation CO2 and non-CO2 impacts. This paper quantifies aviation emissions and contrail climate forcing in the North Atlantic, one of the world's busiest air traffic corridors, over 5 years. Between 2016 and 2019, growth in CO2 (+3.13 % yr−1) and nitrogen oxide emissions (+4.5 % yr−1) outpaced increases in flight distance (+3.05 % yr−1). Over the same period, the annual mean contrail cirrus net RF (204–280 mW m−2) showed significant inter-annual variability caused by variations in meteorology. Responses to COVID-19 caused significant reductions in flight distance travelled (−66 %), CO2 emissions (−71 %) and the contrail net RF (−66 %) compared with the prior 1-year period. Around 12 % of all flights in this region cause 80 % of the annual contrail energy forcing, and the factors associated with strongly warming/cooling contrails include seasonal changes in meteorology and radiation, time of day, background cloud fields, and engine-specific non-volatile particulate matter (nvPM) emissions. Strongly warming contrails in this region are generally formed in wintertime, close to the tropopause, between 15:00 and 04:00 UTC, and above low-level clouds. The most strongly cooling contrails occur in the spring, in the upper troposphere, between 06:00 and 15:00 UTC, and without lower-level clouds. Uncertainty in the contrail cirrus net RF (216–238 mW m−2) arising from meteorology in 2019 is smaller than the inter-annual variability. The contrail RF estimates are most sensitive to the humidity fields, followed by nvPM emissions and aircraft mass assumptions. This longitudinal evaluation of aviation contrail impacts contributes a quantified understanding of inter-annual variability and informs strategies for contrail mitigation.
AU - Teoh,R
AU - Schumann,U
AU - Gryspeerdt,E
AU - Shapiro,M
AU - Molloy,J
AU - Koudis,G
AU - Voigt,C
AU - Stettler,MEJ
DO - 10.5194/acp-22-10919-2022
EP - 10935
PY - 2022///
SN - 1680-7316
SP - 10919
TI - Aviation contrail climate effects in the North Atlantic from 2016 to 2021
T2 - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-10919-2022
UR - https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000846862200001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
UR - http://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/10919/2022/
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/99894
VL - 22
ER -