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@article{Imai:2014:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002978,
author = {Imai, N and White, MT and Ghani, AC and Drakeley, CJ},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0002978},
journal = {PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases},
title = {Transmission and Control of Plasmodium knowlesi: A Mathematical Modelling Study},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002978},
volume = {8},
year = {2014}
}
TY - JOUR
AB - Introduction: Plasmodium knowlesi is now recognised as a leading cause of malaria in Malaysia. As humans come intoincreasing contact with the reservoir host (long-tailed macaques) as a consequence of deforestation, assessing the potentialfor a shift from zoonotic to sustained P. knowlesi transmission between humans is critical.Methods: A multi-host, multi-site transmission model was developed, taking into account the three areas (forest, farm, andvillage) where transmission is thought to occur. Latin hypercube sampling of model parameters was used to identifyparameter sets consistent with possible prevalence in macaques and humans inferred from observed data. We then explorethe consequences of increasing human-macaque contact in the farm, the likely impact of rapid treatment, and the use oflong-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) in preventing wider spread of this emerging infection.Results: Identified model parameters were consistent with transmission being sustained by the macaques with spill over infectionsinto the human population and with high overall basic reproduction numbers (up to 2267). The extent to which macaques foragein the farms had a non-linear relationship with human infection prevalence, the highest prevalence occurring when macaquesforage in the farms but return frequently to the forest where they experience higher contact with vectors and hence sustaintransmission. Only one of 1,046 parameter sets was consistent with sustained human-to-human transmission in the absence ofmacaques, although with a low human reproduction number (R0H = 1.04). Simulations showed LLINs and rapid treatment providepersonal protection to humans with maximal estimated reductions in human prevalence of 42% and 95%, respectively.Conclusion: This model simulates conditions where P. knowlesi transmission may occur and the potential impact of controlmeasures. Predictions suggest that conventional control measures are sufficient at reducing the risk of infection in humans
AU - Imai,N
AU - White,MT
AU - Ghani,AC
AU - Drakeley,CJ
DO - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002978
PY - 2014///
SN - 1935-2735
TI - Transmission and Control of Plasmodium knowlesi: A Mathematical Modelling Study
T2 - PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002978
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/30716
VL - 8
ER -
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