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@article{Routledge:2018:10.1038/s41467-018-04577-y,
author = {Routledge, I and Chevez, JER and Cucunubá, ZM and Gomez, Rogriguez M and Guinovart, C and Gustafson, K and Schneider, K and Walker, PGT and Ghani, A and Bhatt, S},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-04577-y},
journal = {Nature Communications},
pages = {1--8},
title = {Estimating spatiotemporally varying malaria reproduction numbers in a near elimination setting},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04577-y},
volume = {9},
year = {2018}
}

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TY  - JOUR
AB  - In 2016 the World Health Organization identified 21 countries that could eliminate malaria by 2020. Monitoring progress towards this goal requires tracking ongoing transmission. Here we develop methods that estimate individual reproduction numbers and their variation through time and space. Individual reproduction numbers, Rc, describe the state of transmission at a point in time and differ from mean reproduction numbers, which are averages of the number of people infected by a typical case. We assess elimination progress in El Salvador using data for confirmed cases of malaria from 2010 to 2016. Our results demonstrate that whilst the average number of secondary malaria cases was below one (0.61, 95% CI 0.55–0.65), individual reproduction numbers often exceeded one. We estimate a decline in Rc between 2010 and 2016. However we also show that if importation is maintained at the same rate, the country may not achieve malaria elimination by 2020.
AU  - Routledge,I
AU  - Chevez,JER
AU  - Cucunubá,ZM
AU  - Gomez,Rogriguez M
AU  - Guinovart,C
AU  - Gustafson,K
AU  - Schneider,K
AU  - Walker,PGT
AU  - Ghani,A
AU  - Bhatt,S
DO  - 10.1038/s41467-018-04577-y
EP  - 8
PY  - 2018///
SN  - 2041-1723
SP  - 1
TI  - Estimating spatiotemporally varying malaria reproduction numbers in a near elimination setting
T2  - Nature Communications
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04577-y
UR  - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04577-y
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/59777
VL  - 9
ER  -

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