In this section
@article{Barnsley:2024:10.1016/S2214-109X(24)00286-9,
author = {Barnsley, G and Olivera, Mesa D and Hogan, A and Winskill, P and Torkelson, AA and Walker, DG and Ghani, A and Watson, O},
doi = {10.1016/S2214-109X(24)00286-9},
journal = {The Lancet Global Health},
pages = {e1764--e1774},
title = {Impact of the 100 days mission for vaccines on COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(24)00286-9},
volume = {12},
year = {2024}
}
TY - JOUR
AB - BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the beneficial impact of vaccines. It alsohighlighted the need for future investments to expedite an equitable vaccine distribution.The 100 Days Mission aims to develop and make available a new vaccine against a futurepathogen with pandemic potential within 100 days of that pathogen threat beingrecognised. We assessed the value of this mission by estimating the impact that it couldhave had on the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsUsing a previously published model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics fit to excessmortality during the COVID-19 pandemic, we projected scenarios for three differentinvestment strategies: rapid development and manufacture of a vaccine, increasingmanufacturing capacity to eliminate supply constraints, and strengthening health systems toenable faster vaccine roll-outs and global equity. Each scenario was compared against theobserved COVID-19 pandemic to estimate the public health and health-economic impactsof each scenario.FindingsIf countries implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) as they did historically,the 100 Days Mission could have averted an estimated 8.33 million (95% credible interval7.70 – 8.68 million) deaths globally, mostly in low-middle income countries. Thiscorresponds to a monetary saving of $14.35 trillion (95% CrI $12.96 – $17.87) based on thevalue of statistical life years saved. Investment in manufacturing and health systems furtherincreases deaths averted to 11.01 million (95% CrI 10.60 – 11.49 million). Under analternative scenario whereby NPIs are lifted earlier based on vaccine coverage, the 100Days Mission alone could have reduced restrictions by 12,600 (95% CrI 12,300 – 13,100)days globally whilst still averting 5.76 million (95% CrI 4.91 – 6.81 million) deaths.InterpretationOur findings demonstrate the value of the 100 Days Mission and how these can beamplified through improvements in manufacturing and health systems equity. However,t
AU - Barnsley,G
AU - Olivera,Mesa D
AU - Hogan,A
AU - Winskill,P
AU - Torkelson,AA
AU - Walker,DG
AU - Ghani,A
AU - Watson,O
DO - 10.1016/S2214-109X(24)00286-9
EP - 1774
PY - 2024///
SN - 2214-109X
SP - 1764
TI - Impact of the 100 days mission for vaccines on COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study
T2 - The Lancet Global Health
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(24)00286-9
UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214109X24002869?via%3Dihub
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/113175
VL - 12
ER -
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