Results
- Showing results for:
- Reset all filters
Search results
-
Journal articlePaschoalotto MAC, Cima J, Costa E, et al., 2024,
Politics and confidence toward the COVID-19 vaccination: A Brazilian cross-sectional study.
, Hum Vaccin Immunother, Vol: 20This study has the aim of assessing the Brazilian perceptions, influencing factors and political positioning on the confidence concerning COVID-19 vaccination. To achieve the objective, the methods rely on a cross-sectional survey of Brazilian citizens, distributed through different social networks. The sample is composed of 1,670 valid responses, collected from almost all Brazilian states and state capitals. To analyze the data and give a clear view of the variables' relationship, the study used bivariate and comparative graphs. Results show a higher level of confidence in vaccines from Pfizer and AstraZeneca, while the lower level of confidence is associated with vaccines from Sinopharm and Sputinik5. Vaccine efficacy is the most significant influencing factor that helps in the decision to get vaccinated. Also, individuals are less willing to get vaccinated if their political preferences are related to the right-wing. The results led to three main health and social implications: i) the vaccination strategy campaigns should take in count vaccine efficacy and political aspects; ii) the vaccination process should be adapted to regions with different political positions; and iii) a reinforcement in the educational policies of the vaccine's importance to the public health, to avoid the politization of a health issue.
-
Journal articleKwok KO, Huynh T, Wei WI, et al., 2024,
Utilizing large language models in infectious disease transmission modelling for public health preparedness
, Computational and Structural Biotechnology Journal, Vol: 23, Pages: 3254-3257Introduction: OpenAI's ChatGPT, a Large Language Model (LLM), is a powerful tool across domains, designed for text and code generation, fostering collaboration, especially in public health. Investigating the role of this advanced LLM chatbot in assisting public health practitioners in shaping disease transmission models to inform infection control strategies, marks a new era in infectious disease epidemiology research. This study used a case study to illustrate how ChatGPT collaborates with a public health practitioner in co-designing a mathematical transmission model. Methods: Using natural conversation, the practitioner initiated a dialogue involving an iterative process of code generation, refinement, and debugging with ChatGPT to develop a model to fit 10 days of prevalence data to estimate two key epidemiological parameters: i) basic reproductive number (Ro) and ii) final epidemic size. Verification and validation processes are conducted to ensure the accuracy and functionality of the final model. Results: ChatGPT developed a validated transmission model which replicated the epidemic curve and gave estimates of Ro of 4.19 (95 % CI: 4.13- 4.26) and a final epidemic size of 98.3 % of the population within 60 days. It highlighted the advantages of using maximum likelihood estimation with Poisson distribution over least squares method. Conclusion: Integration of LLM in medical research accelerates model development, reducing technical barriers for health practitioners, democratizing access to advanced modeling and potentially enhancing pandemic preparedness globally, particularly in resource-constrained populations.
-
Journal articleHuybrechts I, Chimera B, Hanley-Cook GT, et al., 2024,
Food biodiversity and gastrointestinal cancer risk in nine European countries: analysis within a prospective cohort study
, European Journal of Cancer, Vol: 210, ISSN: 0959-8049BackgroundFood biodiversity in human diets has potential co-benefits for both public health and sustainable food systems. However, current evidence on the potential relationship between food biodiversity and cancer risk, and particularly gastrointestinal cancers typically related to diet, remains limited. This study evaluated how dietary species richness (DSR) was associated with gastrointestinal cancer risk in a pan-European population.MethodsAssociations between DSR and subsequent gastrointestinal cancer risk were examined among 450,111 adults enrolled in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort (EPIC, initiated in 1992), free of cancer at baseline. Usual dietary intakes were assessed at recruitment with country-specific dietary questionnaires. DSR of an individual’s yearly diet was calculated based on the absolute number of unique biological species in each food and drink item. Associations between DSR and cancer risk were assessed by multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models.FindingsDuring a median follow-up time of 14.1 years (SD=3.9), 10,705 participants were diagnosed with gastrointestinal cancer. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) comparing overall gastrointestinal cancer risk in the highest versus lowest quintiles of DSR indicated inverse associations in multivariable-adjusted models [HR (95 % CI): 0.77 (0.69–0.87); P-value < 0·0001] (Table 2). Specifically, inverse associations were observed between DSR and oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma, proximal colon, colorectal, and liver cancer risk (p-trend<0.05 for all cancer types).InterpretationGreater food biodiversity in the diet may lower the risk of certain gastrointestinal cancers. Further research is needed to replicate these novel findings and to understand potential mechanisms.
-
Journal articlePerez Guzman PN, Longa Chanda S, Schaap A, et al., 2024,
Pandemic burden in low-income settings and impact of limited and delayed interventions: a granular modelling analysis of COVID-19 in Kabwe, Zambia
, International Journal of Infectious Diseases, Vol: 147, ISSN: 1201-9712ObjectivesPandemic response in low-income countries (LICs) or settings often suffers from scarce epidemic surveillance and constrained mitigation capacity. The drivers of pandemic burden in such settings, and the impact of limited and delayed interventions remain poorly understood.MethodsWe analysed COVID-19 seroprevalence and all-cause excess deaths data from the peri-urban district of Kabwe, Zambia between March 2020 and September 2021 with a novel mathematical model. Data encompassed three consecutive waves caused by the wild-type, Beta and Delta variants.ResultsAcross all three waves, we estimated a high cumulative attack rate, with 78% (95% credible interval [CrI] 71-85) of the population infected, and a high all-cause excess mortality, at 402 (95% CrI 277-473) deaths per 100,000 people. Ambitiously improving health care to a capacity similar to that in high-income settings could have averted up to 46% (95% CrI 41-53) of accrued excess deaths, if implemented from June 2020 onward. An early and accelerated vaccination rollout could have achieved the highest reductions in deaths. Had vaccination started as in some high-income settings in December 2020 and with the same daily capacity (doses per 100 population), up to 68% (95% CrI 64-71) of accrued excess deaths could have been averted. Slower rollouts would have still averted 62% (95% CrI 58-68), 54% (95% CrI 49-61) or 26% (95% CrI 20-38) of excess deaths if matching the average vaccination capacity of upper-middle-, lower-middle- or LICs, respectively.ConclusionsRobust quantitative analyses of pandemic data are of pressing need to inform future global pandemic preparedness commitments.
-
Journal articleValente de Almeida S, Hauck K, Njenga S, et al., 2024,
Value for money of medicine sampling and quality testing: evidence from Indonesia
, BMJ Global Health -
Journal articleDoohan P, Jorgensen D, Naidoo T, et al., 2024,
Lassa fever outbreaks, mathematical models, and disease parameters: a systematic review and meta-analysis
, The Lancet Global Health, ISSN: 2214-109X -
Journal articleKucharski A, Cori A, 2024,
Inference of epidemic dynamics in the COVID-19 era and beyond
, Epidemics: the journal of infectious disease dynamics, Vol: 48, ISSN: 1755-4365The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the key role that epidemiology and modelling play in analysing infectious threats and supporting decision making in real-time. Motivated by the unprecedented volume and breadth of data generated during the pandemic, we review modern opportunities for analysis to address questions that emerge during a major modern epidemic. Following the broad chronology of insights required — from understanding initial dynamics to retrospective evaluation of interventions, we describe the theoretical foundations of each approach and the underlying intuition. Through a series of case studies, we illustrate real life applications, and discuss implications for future work.
-
Journal articleKruger M, van Elsland SL, Davidson A, et al., 2024,
Outcome of retinoblastoma after implementation of national retinoblastoma treatment guidelines in South Africa
, JCO Global Oncology, Vol: 10, ISSN: 2687-8941PurposeRetinoblastoma, a curable childhood cancer, has been identified as a tracer cancer in the WHO Global Initiative for Childhood Cancer. To document the outcomes of children with retinoblastoma in South Africa, treated as per the first prospective standard national treatment guidelines for childhood cancer in South Africa.Patients and MethodsAll children diagnosed with retinoblastoma between 2012 and 2016 in five South African pediatric oncology units were treated with a standard treatment on the basis of the International Society of Pediatric Oncology-Pediatric Oncology in Developing Countries guidelines for high-income settings. Treatment included focal therapy with/without chemotherapy, or enucleation with/without chemotherapy, and orbital radiotherapy, depending on enucleated eye histology. The end point was survival at 24 months, using Kaplan-Meier curves with log-rank (Mantel-Cox) and chi-square (χ2) tests with respective P values reported.ResultsA total of 178 children were included in the study; 68% presented with unilateral disease. The median age was 27 months (range 0-118 months) with a male:female ratio of 1:0.75. The overall survival was 79% at 24 months with significant association with stage at diagnosis (P < .001) and older age over 2 years as opposed to younger than 2 years (P < .001). Causes of death were disease progression/relapses in 90% (34 of 38) and unknown in 2% (1 of 38), whereas treatment abandonment was 1.7% (3 of 178).ConclusionEfficacy with national treatment guidelines was confirmed, and feasibility of implementing standard national childhood cancer treatment guidelines was documented, involving multidisciplinary teams in South Africa. Outcome was significantly associated with stage at diagnosis and age.
-
Journal articleStevens O, Sabin K, Anderson RL, et al., 2024,
Population size, HIV prevalence, and antiretroviral therapy coverage among key populations in sub-Saharan Africa: collation and synthesis of survey data, 2010–23
, The Lancet Global Health, Vol: 12, Pages: e1400-e1412, ISSN: 2214-109XBackgroundKey population HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa require epidemiological information to ensure equitable and universal access to effective services. We aimed to consolidate and harmonise survey data among female sex workers, men who have sex with men, people who inject drugs, and transgender people to estimate key population size, HIV prevalence, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage for countries in mainland sub-Saharan Africa.MethodsKey population size estimates, HIV prevalence, and ART coverage data from 39 sub-Saharan Africa countries between 2010 and 2023 were collated from existing databases and verified against source documents. We used Bayesian mixed-effects spatial regression to model urban key population size estimates as a proportion of the gender-matched, year-matched, and area-matched population aged 15–49 years. We modelled subnational key population HIV prevalence and ART coverage with age-matched, gender-matched, year-matched, and province-matched total population estimates as predictors.FindingsWe extracted 2065 key population size data points, 1183 HIV prevalence data points, and 259 ART coverage data points. Across national urban populations, a median of 1·65% (IQR 1·35–1·91) of adult cisgender women were female sex workers, 0·89% (0·77–0·95) were men who have sex with men, 0·32% (0·31–0·34) were men who injected drugs, and 0·10% (0·06–0·12) were women who were transgender. HIV prevalence among key populations was, on average, four to six times higher than matched total population prevalence, and ART coverage was correlated with, but lower than, the total population ART coverage with wide heterogeneity in relative ART coverage across studies. Across sub-Saharan Africa, key populations were estimated as comprising 1·2% (95% credible interval 0·9–1·6) of the total population aged 15–49 ye
-
Journal articleWilliams LR, Emary KRW, Phillips DJ, et al., 2024,
Implementation and adherence to regular asymptomatic testing in a COVID-19 vaccine trial.
, Vaccine, Vol: 42BACKGROUND: For pathogens which cause infections that present asymptomatically, evaluating vaccine efficacy (VE) against asymptomatic infection is important for understanding a vaccine's potential epidemiological impact. Regular testing for subclinical infections is a potentially valuable strategy but its success hinges on participant adherence and minimising false positives. This paper describes the implementation and adherence to weekly testing in a COVID-19 vaccine trial. METHODS: COV002 was a phase 2/3 trial assessing the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine against SARS-CoV-2. Asymptomatic infections were detected using weekly self-administered swabs for RT-PCR testing. We analysed adherence using mixed-effects regression models and estimated the probability of true and false positive asymptomatic infections using estimates of adherence and testing characteristics. FINDINGS: 356,551 tests were self-administered by 10,811 participants during the 13-month follow-up. Median adherence was 75.0% (IQR 42·6-90·9), which translated to a 74·5% (IQR 50·9-78·8) probability of detecting a positive asymptomatic infection during the swabbing period, and between 21 and 96 false positives during VE evaluation. The odds of returning a swab declined by 8% per week and further after testing positive and unblinding. Adherence was higher in older age groups, females and non-healthcare workers. INTERPRETATION: The COV002 trial demonstrated the feasibility of running a long-term regular asymptomatic testing strategy. This information could be valuable for designing future phase III vaccine trials in which infection is an outcome. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation, National Institutes for Health Research (NIHR), Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Thames Valley and South Midland's NIHR Clinical Research Network, AstraZeneca.
This data is extracted from the Web of Science and reproduced under a licence from Thomson Reuters. You may not copy or re-distribute this data in whole or in part without the written consent of the Science business of Thomson Reuters.
Contact us
For any enquiries related to the MRC Centre please contact:
Scientific Manager
Susannah Fisher
mrc.gida@imperial.ac.uk
External Relationships and Communications Manager
Dr Sabine van Elsland
s.van-elsland@imperial.ac.uk