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• Journal article
  Dighe A, Cattarino L, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, Skarp J, Imai N, Bhatia S, Gaythorpe K, Ainslie K, Baguelin M, Bhatt S, Boonyasiri A, Brazeau N, Cooper L, Coupland H, Cucunuba Perez Z, Dorigatti I, Eales O, van Elsland S, Fitzjohn R, Green W, Haw D, Hinsley W, Knock E, Laydon D, Mellan T, Mishra S, Nedjati Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Pons Salort M, Thompson H, Unwin H, Verity R, Vollmer M, Walters C, Watson O, Whittaker C, Whittles L, Ghani A, Donnelly C, Ferguson N, Riley Set al., 2020,

  Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions

  , BMC Medicine, Vol: 18, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 1741-7015

  Background After experiencing a sharp growth in COVID-19 cases early in the pandemic, South Korea rapidly controlled transmission while implementing less stringent national social distancing measures than countries in Europe and the US. This has led to substantial interest in their “test, trace, isolate” strategy. However, it is important to understand the epidemiological peculiarities of South Korea’s outbreak and characterise their response before attempting to emulate these measures elsewhere.MethodsWe systematically extracted numbers of suspected cases tested, PCR-confirmed cases, deaths, isolated confirmed cases, and numbers of confirmed cases with an identified epidemiological link from publicly available data. We estimated the time-varying reproduction number, Rt, using an established Bayesian framework, and reviewed the package of interventions implemented by South Korea using our extracted data, plus published literature and government sources. Results We estimated that after the initial rapid growth in cases, Rt dropped below one in early April before increasing to a maximum of 1.94 (95%CrI; 1.64-2.27) in May following outbreaks in Seoul Metropolitan Region. By mid-June Rt was back below one where it remained until the end of our study (July 13th). Despite less stringent “lockdown” measures, strong social distancing measures were implemented in high incidence areas and studies measured a considerable national decrease in movement in late-February. Testing capacity was swiftly increased, and protocols were in place to isolate suspected and confirmed cases quickly however we could not estimate the delay to isolation using our data. Accounting for just 10% of cases, individual case-based contact-tracing picked up a relatively minor proportion of total cases, with cluster investigations accounting for 66%. ConclusionsWhilst early adoption of testing and contact-tracing are likely to be important for South Korea’s successf

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• Journal article
  Drake TM, Docherty AB, Harrison EM, Quint JK, Adamali H, Agnew S, Babu S, Barber CM, Barratt S, Bendstrup E, Bianchi S, Castillo Villegas D, Chaudhuri N, Chua F, Coker R, Chang W, Crawshaw A, Crowley LE, Dosanjh D, Fiddler CA, Forrest IA, George PM, Gibbons MA, Groom K, Haney S, Hart SP, Heiden E, Henry M, Ho L-P, Hoyles RK, Hutchinson J, Hurley K, Jones MG, Jones S, Kokosi M, Kreuter M, Mackay LS, Mahendran S, Margaritopoulos G, Molina-Molina M, Molyneaux PL, O'Brien A, O'Reilly K, Packham A, Parfrey H, Poletti V, Porter JC, Renzoni E, Rivera-Ortega P, Russell A-M, Saini G, Spencer LG, Stella GM, Stone H, Sturney S, Thickett D, Thillai M, Wallis T, Ward K, Wells AU, West A, Wickremasinghe M, Woodhead F, Hearson G, Howard L, Baillie JK, Openshaw PJM, Semple MG, Stewart I, Jenkins RG, ISARIC4C Investigatorset al., 2020,

  Outcome of hospitalization for COVID-19 in patients with interstitial lung disease: an international multicenter study.

  , American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Vol: 202, Pages: 1656-1665, ISSN: 1073-449X

  RATIONALE: The impact of COVID-19 on patients with Interstitial Lung Disease (ILD) has not been established. OBJECTIVES: To assess outcomes in patients with ILD hospitalized for COVID-19 versus those without ILD in a contemporaneous age, sex and comorbidity matched population. METHODS: An international multicenter audit of patients with a prior diagnosis of ILD admitted to hospital with COVID-19 between 1 March and 1 May 2020 was undertaken and compared with patients, without ILD obtained from the ISARIC 4C cohort, admitted with COVID-19 over the same period. The primary outcome was survival. Secondary analysis distinguished IPF from non-IPF ILD and used lung function to determine the greatest risks of death. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Data from 349 patients with ILD across Europe were included, of whom 161 were admitted to hospital with laboratory or clinical evidence of COVID-19 and eligible for propensity-score matching. Overall mortality was 49% (79/161) in patients with ILD with COVID-19. After matching ILD patients with COVID-19 had higher mortality (HR 1.60, Confidence Intervals 1.17-2.18 p=0.003) compared with age, sex and co-morbidity matched controls without ILD. Patients with a Forced Vital Capacity (FVC) of <80% had an increased risk of death versus patients with FVC ≥80% (HR 1.72, 1.05-2.83). Furthermore, obese patients with ILD had an elevated risk of death (HR 2.27, 1.39-3.71). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with ILD are at increased risk of death from COVID-19, particularly those with poor lung function and obesity. Stringent precautions should be taken to avoid COVID-19 in patients with ILD. This article is open access and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives License 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

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• Journal article
  Hanley B, Naresh KN, Roufosse C, Nicholson AG, Weir J, Cooke GS, Thursz M, Manousou P, Corbett R, Goldin R, Al-Sarraj S, Abdolrasouli A, Swann OC, Baillon L, Penn R, Barclay WS, Viola P, Osborn Met al., 2020,

  Histopathological findings and viral tropism in UK patients with severe fatal COVID-19: a post-mortem study

  , The Lancet Microbe, Vol: 1, Pages: e245-e253, ISSN: 2666-5247

  BackgroundSevere COVID-19 has a high mortality rate. Comprehensive pathological descriptions of COVID-19 are scarce and limited in scope. We aimed to describe the histopathological findings and viral tropism in patients who died of severe COVID-19.MethodsIn this case series, patients were considered eligible if they were older than 18 years, with premortem diagnosis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection and COVID-19 listed clinically as the direct cause of death. Between March 1 and April 30, 2020, full post-mortem examinations were done on nine patients with confirmed COVID-19, including sampling of all major organs. A limited autopsy was done on one additional patient. Histochemical and immunohistochemical analyses were done, and histopathological findings were reported by subspecialist pathologists. Viral quantitative RT-PCR analysis was done on tissue samples from a subset of patients.FindingsThe median age at death of our cohort of ten patients was 73 years (IQR 52–79). Thrombotic features were observed in at least one major organ in all full autopsies, predominantly in the lung (eight [89%] of nine patients), heart (five [56%]), and kidney (four [44%]). Diffuse alveolar damage was the most consistent lung finding (all ten patients); however, organisation was noted in patients with a longer clinical course. We documented lymphocyte depletion (particularly CD8-positive T cells) in haematological organs and haemophagocytosis. Evidence of acute tubular injury was noted in all nine patients examined. Major unexpected findings were acute pancreatitis (two [22%] of nine patients), adrenal micro-infarction (three [33%]), pericarditis (two [22%]), disseminated mucormycosis (one [10%] of ten patients), aortic dissection (one [11%] of nine patients), and marantic endocarditis (one [11%]). Viral genomes were detected outside of the respiratory tract in four of five patients. The presence of subgenomic viral RNA transcripts provided evidence of

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• Journal article
  Millar JE, Neyton L, Seth S, Dunning J, Merson L, Murthy S, Russell CD, Keating S, Swets M, Sudre C, Spector T, Ourselin S, Steves C, Wolf J, Docherty A, Harrison E, Openshaw P, Semple C, Baillie JKet al., 2020,

  Robust, reproducible clinical patterns in hospitalised patients with COVID-19

  , MedRxiv

  <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>Severe COVID-19 is characterised by fever, cough, and dyspnoea. Symptoms affecting other organ systems have been reported. However, it is the clinical associations of different patterns of symptoms which influence diagnostic and therapeutic decision-making. In this study, we applied simple machine learning techniques to a large prospective cohort of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 identify clinically meaningful sub-groups.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>We obtained structured clinical data on 59 011 patients in the UK (the ISARIC Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium, 4C) and used a principled, unsupervised clustering approach to partition the first 25 477 cases according to symptoms reported at recruitment. We validated our findings in a second group of 33 534 cases recruited to ISARIC-4C, and in 4 445 cases recruited to a separate study of community cases.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Findings</jats:title><jats:p>Unsupervised clustering identified distinct sub-groups. First, a core symptom set of fever, cough, and dyspnoea, which co-occurred with additional symptoms in three further patterns: fatigue and confusion, diarrhoea and vomiting, or productive cough. Presentations with a single reported symptom of dyspnoea or confusion were common, and a subgroup of patients reported few or no symptoms. Patients presenting with gastrointestinal symptoms were more commonly female, had a longer duration of symptoms before presentation, and had lower 30-day mortality. Patients presenting with confusion, with or without core symptoms, were older and had a higher unadjusted mortality. Symptom clusters were highly consistent in replication analysis using a further 35446 individuals subsequently recruited to ISARIC-4C. Simil

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• Journal article
  Peng Y, Mentzer AJ, Liu G, Yao X, Yin Z, Dong D, Dejnirattisai W, Rostron T, Supasa P, Liu C, López-Camacho C, Slon-Campos J, Zhao Y, Stuart DI, Paesen GC, Grimes JM, Antson AA, Bayfield OW, Hawkins DEDP, Ker D, Wang B, Turtle L, Subramaniam K, Thomson P, Zhang P, Dold C, Ratcliff J, Simmonds P, de Silva T, Sopp P, Wellington D, Rajapaksa U, Chen Y, Salio M, Napolitani G, Paes W, Borrow P, Kessler BM, Fry JW, Schwabe NF, Semple MG, Baillie JK, Moore SC, Openshaw PJM, Ansari MA, Dunachie S, Barnes E, Frater J, Kerr G, Goulder P, Lockett T, Levin R, Zhang Y, Jing R, Ho L, Barnes E, Dong D, Dong T, Dunachie S, Frater J, Goulder P, Kerr G, Klenerman P, Liu G, McMichael A, Napolitani G, Ogg G, Peng Y, Salio M, Yao X, Yin Z, Kenneth Baillie J, Klenerman P, Mentzer AJ, Moore SC, Openshaw PJM, Semple MG, Stuart DI, Turtle L, Cornall RJ, Conlon CP, Klenerman P, Screaton GR, Mongkolsapaya J, McMichael A, Knight JC, Ogg G, Dong T, Oxford Immunology Network Covid-19 Response T cell Consortium, ISARIC4C Investigatorset al., 2020,

  Broad and strong memory CD4+ and CD8+ T cells induced by SARS-CoV-2 in UK convalescent individuals following COVID-19

  , Nature Immunology, ISSN: 1529-2916

  The development of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccines and therapeutics will depend on understanding viral immunity. We studied T cell memory in 42 patients following recovery from COVID-19 (28 with mild disease and 14 with severe disease) and 16 unexposed donors, using interferon-γ-based assays with peptides spanning SARS-CoV-2 except ORF1. The breadth and magnitude of T cell responses were significantly higher in severe as compared with mild cases. Total and spike-specific T cell responses correlated with spike-specific antibody responses. We identified 41 peptides containing CD4+ and/or CD8+ epitopes, including six immunodominant regions. Six optimized CD8+ epitopes were defined, with peptide–MHC pentamer-positive cells displaying the central and effector memory phenotype. In mild cases, higher proportions of SARS-CoV-2-specific CD8+ T cells were observed. The identification of T cell responses associated with milder disease will support an understanding of protective immunity and highlights the potential of including non-spike proteins within future COVID-19 vaccine design.

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  Swann OV, Holden KA, Turtle L, Pollock L, Fairfield CJ, Drake TM, Seth S, Egan C, Hardwick HE, Halpin S, Girvan M, Donohue C, Pritchard M, Patel LB, Ladhani S, Sigfrid L, Sinha IP, Olliaro PL, Nguyen-Van-Tam JS, Horby PW, Merson L, Carson G, Dunning J, Openshaw PJM, Baillie JK, Harrison EM, Docherty AB, Semple MGet al., 2020,

  Clinical characteristics of children and young people admitted to hospital with covid-19 in United Kingdom: prospective multicentre observational cohort study

  , BMJ, Vol: 370, Pages: 1-15

  Objective To characterise the clinical features of children and young people admitted to hospital with laboratory confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in the UK and explore factors associated with admission to critical care, mortality, and development of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children and adolescents temporarily related to coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) (MIS-C).Design Prospective observational cohort study with rapid data gathering and near real time analysis.Setting 260 hospitals in England, Wales, and Scotland between 17 January and 3 July 2020, with a minimum follow-up time of two weeks (to 17 July 2020).Participants 651 children and young people aged less than 19 years admitted to 138 hospitals and enrolled into the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emergency Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK study with laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2.Main outcome measures Admission to critical care (high dependency or intensive care), in-hospital mortality, or meeting the WHO preliminary case definition for MIS-C.Results Median age was 4.6 (interquartile range 0.3-13.7) years, 35% (225/651) were under 12 months old, and 56% (367/650) were male. 57% (330/576) were white, 12% (67/576) South Asian, and 10% (56/576) black. 42% (276/651) had at least one recorded comorbidity. A systemic mucocutaneous-enteric cluster of symptoms was identified, which encompassed the symptoms for the WHO MIS-C criteria. 18% (116/632) of children were admitted to critical care. On multivariable analysis, this was associated with age under 1 month (odds ratio 3.21, 95% confidence interval 1.36 to 7.66; P=0.008), age 10-14 years (3.23, 1.55 to 6.99; P=0.002), and black ethnicity (2.82, 1.41 to 5.57; P=0.003). Six (1%) of 627 patients died in hospital, all of whom had profound comorbidity. 11% (52/456) met the WHO MIS-C criteria, with the first patient developing symptoms in mid-March. Children

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  Atchison C, Pristerà P, Cooper E, Papageorgiou V, Redd R, Piggin M, Flower B, Fontana G, Satkunarajah S, Ashrafian H, Lawrence-Jones A, Naar L, Chigwende J, Gibbard S, Riley S, Darzi A, Elliott P, Ashby D, Barclay W, Cooke GS, Ward Het al., 2020,

  Usability and acceptability of home-based self-testing for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies for population surveillance

  , Clinical Infectious Diseases, Vol: 2020, Pages: 1-10, ISSN: 1058-4838

  BACKGROUND: This study assesses acceptability and usability of home-based self-testing for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies using lateral flow immunoassays (LFIA). METHODS: We carried out public involvement and pilot testing in 315 volunteers to improve usability. Feedback was obtained through online discussions, questionnaires, observations and interviews of people who tried the test at home. This informed the design of a nationally representative survey of adults in England using two LFIAs (LFIA1 and LFIA2) which were sent to 10,600 and 3,800 participants, respectively, who provided further feedback. RESULTS: Public involvement and pilot testing showed high levels of acceptability, but limitations with the usability of kits. Most people reported completing the test; however, they identified difficulties with practical aspects of the kit, particularly the lancet and pipette, a need for clearer instructions and more guidance on interpretation of results. In the national study, 99.3% (8,693/8,754) of LFIA1 and 98.4% (2,911/2,957) of LFIA2 respondents attempted the test and 97.5% and 97.8% of respondents completed it, respectively. Most found the instructions easy to understand, but some reported difficulties using the pipette (LFIA1: 17.7%) and applying the blood drop to the cassette (LFIA2: 31.3%). Most respondents obtained a valid result (LFIA1: 91.5%; LFIA2: 94.4%). Overall there was substantial concordance between participant and clinician interpreted results (kappa: LFIA1 0.72; LFIA2 0.89). CONCLUSION: Impactful public involvement is feasible in a rapid response setting. Home self-testing with LFIAs can be used with a high degree of acceptability and usability by adults, making them a good option for use in seroprevalence surveys.

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  Knight SR, Ho A, Pius R, Buchan I, Carson G, Drake TM, Dunning J, Fairfield CJ, Gamble C, Green CA, Gupta R, Halpin S, Hardwick HE, Holden KA, Horby PW, Jackson C, Mclean KA, Merson L, Nguyen-Van-Tam JS, Norman L, Noursadeghi M, Olliaro PL, Pritchard MG, Russell CD, Shaw CA, Sheikh A, Solomon T, Sudlow C, Swann OV, Turtle LCW, Openshaw PJM, Baillie JK, Semple MG, Docherty AB, Harrison EMet al., 2020,

  Risk stratification of patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol: development and validation of the 4C Mortality Score

  , MedRxiv

  <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Objectives</jats:title><jats:p>To develop and validate a pragmatic risk score to predict mortality for patients admitted to hospital with covid-19.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Design</jats:title><jats:p>Prospective observational cohort study: ISARIC WHO CCP-UK study (ISARIC Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium [4C]). Model training was performed on a cohort of patients recruited between 6 February and 20 May 2020, with validation conducted on a second cohort of patients recruited between 21 May and 29 June 2020.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Setting</jats:title><jats:p>260 hospitals across England, Scotland, and Wales.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Participants</jats:title><jats:p>Adult patients (≥18 years) admitted to hospital with covid-19 admitted at least four weeks before final data extraction.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Main outcome measures</jats:title><jats:p>In-hospital mortality.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>There were 34 692 patients included in the derivation dataset (mortality rate 31.7%) and 22 454 in the validation dataset (mortality 31.5%). The final 4C Mortality Score included eight variables readily available at initial hospital assessment: age, sex, number of comorbidities, respiratory rate, peripheral oxygen saturation, level of consciousness, urea, and C-reactive protein (score range 0-21 points). The 4C risk stratification score demonstrated high discrimination for mortality (derivation cohort: AUROC 0.79; 95% CI 0.78 − 0.79; validation cohort 0.78, 0.77-0.79) with excellent calibration (slope = 1.0). Patients with a score ≥15 (n = 2310, 17.4%) had a 67% mortality (i.

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  Davidson AD, Williamson MK, Lewis S, Shoemark D, Carroll MW, Heesom KJ, Zambon M, Ellis J, Lewis PA, Hiscox JA, Matthews DAet al., 2020,

  Characterisation of the transcriptome and proteome of SARS-CoV-2 reveals a cell passage induced in-frame deletion of the furin-like cleavage site from the spike glycoprotein

  , GENOME MEDICINE, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1756-994X
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  Swann OV, Holden K, Turtle L, Pollock L, Fairfield CJ, Drake TM, Seth S, Egan C, Hardwick HE, Halpin S, Girvan M, Donohue C, Pritchard M, Patel LB, Ladhani S, Sigfrid L, Sinha IP, Olliaro P, Nguyen-Van-Tam JS, Horby PW, Merson L, Carson G, Dunning J, Openshaw PJM, Baillie JK, Harrison EM, Docherty A, Semple MGet al., 2020,

  Clinical characteristics of children and young people hospitalised with covid-19 in the United Kingdom: prospective multicentre observational cohort study

  <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Objective</jats:title><jats:p>To characterise the clinical features of children and young people admitted to hospital with laboratory-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in the UK, and explore factors associated with admission to critical care, mortality, and development of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children and adolescents temporarily related to covid-19 (MIS-C).</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Design</jats:title><jats:p>Prospective observational cohort study with rapid data gathering and near real time analysis.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Setting</jats:title><jats:p>260 acute care hospitals in England, Wales, and Scotland between 17th January and 5<jats:sup>th</jats:sup>June 2020, with a minimal follow-up time of two weeks (to 19<jats:sup>th</jats:sup>June 2020).</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Participants</jats:title><jats:p>451 children and young people aged less than 19 years admitted to 116 hospitals and enrolled into the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emergency Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK study with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Main Outcome Measures</jats:title><jats:p>Admission to critical care (high dependency or intensive care), in-hospital mortality, or meeting the WHO preliminary case definition for MIS-C.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>Median age was 3.9 years [interquartile range (IQR) 0.3-12.9 years], 36% (162/451) were under 12 months old, and 57% (256/450) were male. 56% (224/401) were White, 12% (49/401) South Asian and 10% (40/401) B

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