COVID-19 planning tools

Background

The multiple planning tools presented on this page, provide alternative analyses of COVID-19 transmissibility and forecasts future reported cases or deaths for many countries. The analyses rely on distinct models and data, and therefore results may vary accordingly. Each forecast comes with its own strengths and caveats and they should all be interpreted with caution.

The models

LMIC short-term forecasts dashboard (find out more)
Daily updated estimates for Europe (find out more)
Weekly short-term global forecasts (find out more)

Why use more than one model?

Evidence in science rarely comes from a single study but is rather a collaborative effort. The more results, based on independent data and models, accumulate and converge toward the same interpretation, the greater the confidence in the results.

The Imperial College London COVID-19 Response Team is analysing data using multiple models for countries around the world, producing multiple planning tools. See below for a note on the UK.

 To help interpret those forecasts, we outline below some of the key assumptions underlying the different models:

Key model characteristics

In epidemiological model can use a combination of mechanistic and statistical approaches. 

Mechanistic model: Explicitly accounts for the underlying mechanisms of diseases transmission and attempt to identify the drivers of transmissibility. Rely on more assumptions about the disease dynamics.

Statistical model: Do not explicitly model the mechanism of transmission. Infer trends in either transmissibility or deaths from patterns in the data. Rely on fewer assumptions about the disease dynamics.

Mechanistic models can provide nuanced insights into severity and transmission but require specification of parameters – all of which have underlying uncertainty. Statistical models typically have fewer parameters. Uncertainty is therefore easier to propagate in these models. However, they cannot then inform questions about underlying mechanisms of spread and severity.

Data used

Strengths and caveats

Further detailed description of the methods underlying each model and links to the code are available on their respective pages.

The advice to the UK government has been based on multiple models and multiple data streams. Those models have tended to be more complex, reflecting:

• The wealth of alternative data available from the UK, e.g. ICU demand and capacity; and
• The range of questions addressed, e.g. impact of lifting some control measures.

Reference to those models can be found here.