In this section
@article{Griffin:2014:10.1038/ncomms4136,
author = {Griffin, JT and Ferguson, NM and Ghani, AC},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms4136},
journal = {Nature Communications},
title = {Estimates of the changing age-burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria disease in sub-Saharan Africa},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms4136},
volume = {5},
year = {2014}
}
TY - JOUR
AB - Estimating the changing burden of malaria disease remains difficult owing to limitations inhealth reporting systems. Here, we use a transmission model incorporating acquisition andloss of immunity to capture age-specific patterns of disease at different transmissionintensities. The model is fitted to age-stratified data from 23 sites in Africa, and we thenproduce maps and estimates of disease burden. We estimate that in 2010 there were 252(95% credible interval: 171–353) million cases of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa that activecase finding would detect. However, only 34% (12–86%) of these cases would be observedthrough passive case detection. We estimate that the proportion of all cases of clinicalmalaria that are in under-fives varies from above 60% at high transmission to below 20% atlow transmission. The focus of some interventions towards young children may need to bereconsidered, and should be informed by the current local transmission intensity.
AU - Griffin,JT
AU - Ferguson,NM
AU - Ghani,AC
DO - 10.1038/ncomms4136
PY - 2014///
SN - 2041-1723
TI - Estimates of the changing age-burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria disease in sub-Saharan Africa
T2 - Nature Communications
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms4136
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/30718
VL - 5
ER -