In this section
@article{Hogan:2020:10.1371/journal.pmed.1003377,
author = {Hogan, A and Winskill, P and Ghani, A},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pmed.1003377},
journal = {PLoS Medicine},
pages = {1--19},
title = {Estimated impact of RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine allocation strategies in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003377},
volume = {17},
year = {2020}
}
TY - JOUR
AB - Background: The RTS,S/AS01 vaccine against P. falciparum malaria infection completed phase 3 trials in 2014, and demonstrated efficacy against clinical malaria of approximately 36% over 4 years for a 4-dose schedule in children aged 5–17 months. Pilot vaccine implementation has recently begun in three African countries. If the pilots demonstrate both a positive health impact and resolve remaining safety concerns, wider roll-out could be recommended from 2021 onwards. Vaccine demand may however outstrip initial supply. We sought to identify where vaccine introduction should be prioritised to maximise public health impact under a range of supply constraints using mathematical modelling. Methods and Findings: Using a mathematical model of P. falciparum malaria transmission and RTS,S vaccine impact, we estimated the clinical cases and deaths averted in children aged 0–5 years in sub-Saharan Africa under two scenarios for vaccine coverage (100% and realistic) and two scenarios for other interventions (current coverage and WHO Global Technical Strategy targets). We used a prioritisation algorithm to identify potential allocative efficiency gains fromprioritising vaccine allocation among countries or administrative units to maximise cases or deaths averted. If malaria burden at introduction is similar to current levels, assuming realistic vaccine coverage and country-level prioritisation in areas with parasite prevalence >10%, we estimate 4.3 million (95% credible interval, CrI 2.8–6.8 million) malaria cases and 22,000 (95% CrI 11,000–35,000) deaths in children younger than 5 years could be averted annually at a dose constraint of 30 million. This decreases to 3.0 million (95% CrI 2.0–4.7 million) cases and14,000 (95% CrI 7,000–23,000) deaths at a dose constraint of 20 million,and increases to 6.6 million (95% CrI 4.2–10.8 million) cases and38,000 (95% CrI 18
AU - Hogan,A
AU - Winskill,P
AU - Ghani,A
DO - 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003377
EP - 19
PY - 2020///
SN - 1549-1277
SP - 1
TI - Estimated impact of RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine allocation strategies in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study
T2 - PLoS Medicine
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003377
UR - https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003377
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/83965
VL - 17
ER -