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@article{Staffell:2015:10.1016/j.energy.2015.06.082,
author = {Staffell, IL and Bossmann, T},
doi = {10.1016/j.energy.2015.06.082},
journal = {Energy},
pages = {1317--1333},
title = {The Shape of Future Electricity Demand: Exploring Load Curves in 2050s Germany and Britain},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.06.082},
volume = {90},
year = {2015}
}
TY - JOUR
AB - National demand for electricity follows a regular and predictable daily pattern. This pattern is setto change due to efficiency improvements, de-industrialisation and electrification of heat andtransport. These changes are independent of renewable infeed and are not well understood:contemporary studies assume that electricity load curves will retain their current shape, scalingequally in all hours. Changes to this shape will profoundly affect the electricity industry: increasingthe requirements for flexible and peaking capacity, and reducing asset utilisation and profitability.This paper explores the evolution of load curves to 2050 in Germany and Britain: two countriesundergoing radically different energy transformations. It reviews recent developments in Europe’selectricity demand, and introduces two models for synthesising future hourly load curves: eLOADand DESSTinEE. Both models are applied to a decarbonisation scenario for 2050, and consistentlyshow peak loads increasing by about 23% points above the change in annual demand, to 103 GWin Germany and 92 GW in Britain. Sensitivities around electrification show that a million extra heatpumps or electric vehicles add up to 1.5 GW to peak demand.The structure and shape of the future load curves are analysed, and impacts on the nationalelectricity systems are drawn.
AU - Staffell,IL
AU - Bossmann,T
DO - 10.1016/j.energy.2015.06.082
EP - 1333
PY - 2015///
SN - 0360-5442
SP - 1317
TI - The Shape of Future Electricity Demand: Exploring Load Curves in 2050s Germany and Britain
T2 - Energy
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.06.082
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/25173
VL - 90
ER -
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