Climate change effects on large-scale hydrology and water resources in Africa

Dr N McIntyre , Professor H Wheater, M Kigobe, P Kenabatho

Water resources are already severely stressed in many parts of Africa, and population, land use intensification and climate change are increasing these pressures. Analysis is hampered by the incompleteness of historical climate data sets, lack of easily applicable hydrological models, and uncertainty in climate change models. In Egypt, Botswana and Uganda there are signficant concerns about the future impact of climate change, and three projects are developing improved regional climate and hydrolgical modelling capability in these countries. This includes stochastic rainfall modelling for infilling historic records and downscaling climate model outputs, satellite estimation of rainfall, and large scale modelling of the Nile and Limpopo rivers and tributaries.

References

• Kenabatho, P., McIntyre, N., Wheater, H.  Application of generalised linear models for rainfall simulation in semi-arid areas: A case study from the Upper Limpopo basin in northeast Botswana. BHS Nat. Hydrol. Symp., Exeter, 15-17 Sep.2008
• Asadullah, A., McIntyre, N., Kigobe, M. Evaluation of five satellite-based products for estimation of rainfall over Uganda, Hydrological Sciences Journal, In press
• Elshamy, ME, Wheater, HS, Gedney, N, Huntingford, C. Evaluation of the rainfall component of a weather generator for climate impact studies, J HYDROL, 2006, Vol: 326, Pages: 1 - 24, ISSN: 0022-1694