Evaluating the impact of UK’s net-zero policies on investment behaviours in Humber Cluster using an agent-based model
The growing climate urgency has exposed the industrial sector to a myriad of green industrial policies, aimed at accelerating deep decarbonization efforts. This evolving policy environment, preferentially directed at industrial clusters to leverage economies of scale and reduce technology-deployment risks, necessitates an analysis of these policies' impacts on decision-making within a cluster. This project focuses on designing an agent-based model to evaluate the effects of policies, behavioral heterogeneities among firms, and external triggers such as carbon and fuel prices on investment decision-making and the shaping of decarbonisation pathways, using Humber Cluster as a case study.
Supervisors:
- Dr. Koen van Dam, Department of Chemical Engineering
- Dr. Nixon Sunny, Centre for Environmental Policy
Accelerating the Uptake of CCUS and Hydrogen for Decarbonising Integrated Iron and Steel Plants
This project aims to create an optimisation-based market penetration model to evaluate various policies' effectiveness in promoting clean steelmaking technologies. Despite extensive research, high costs hinder the adoption of CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilisation, and Storage) and green/blue hydrogen in steelmaking. By analysing data from 400 steel plants worldwide, the model will assess the impact of carbon taxes, grants, incentives, and ETS on technologies like blast furnaces with carbon capture and electric arc furnaces using green and blue hydrogen. The goal is to identify a strategic policy mix to boost competitiveness and encourage sustainable steelmaking adoption.
Supervisors:
- Dr. Gbemi Oluleye, Grantham Institute
- Elsy Milan, Centre for Environmental Policy
Modelling the Steel Sector in an Open-Source Energy Systems Model (OSeMOSYS): Japan's Case
Being fundamental to the economy while being highly emitting is a dilemma that the steel industry faces. Global efforts must now focus on electrifying production and introducing hydrogen-based and carbon-captured steel to achieve net-zero goals. Due to its complex and disaggregated nature, the sector is underrepresented in current energy models. This project fills the gap by integrating production pathways and sector-specific parameters into the open-source OSeMOSYS model, testing with Japan's steel data to output an optimised technology mix until 2060. The larger goal is to make steel-OseMOSYS available globally for steelmakers to make investment decisions under evolving market conditions.
Supervisors:
- Prof. Adam Hawkes, Department of Chemical Engineering
- Abhishek Shivakumar, Head of Energy Systems Modelling, Transition Zero
- Ashank Sinha, Head of Heavy Industry and Commodity Data, Transition Zero
Assessing the commercial opportunity of CCUS in an oil-based economy: the case of Saudi Arabia
Due to the novelty of carbon capture technologies, they are not fully commercialized. In fact, their market uptake is subject to policy enablement, capital inflow, and market demand. Saudi Arabia with an oil-based economy, sets carbon capture as a fundamental component for its net-zero strategy but has no proof of the CCUS business models viability. Hence, the following project combines the value pool modelling and strategic foresight methods to quantify the underlying financial value of the emerging CCUS market in KSA under multiple future scenarios. The modelling outcome is used to attract investments and present evidence-based policy recommendations to unlock the CCUS potential.
Supervisors:
- Dr. Mark Workman, Energy Futures Lab
Developing Net-Zero Carbon Strategies for Nigeria's Industrial Sector via Energy Systems Modelling
Nigeria, projected to be among the top five most populous countries by 2050, currently faces economic challenges further complicated by climate change, impacting its largely rain-fed agricultural system. The Energy Transition Plan aims for net zero emissions by 2060, with the industrial sector targeting an 80% emissions reduction by 2050. However, accelerating industrial growth is crucial for economic growth. While the power, buildings, and road transport sectors have decarbonisation studies, these are limited for local industries. This project examines decarbonisation pathways for local industrial clusters, considering policies, technologies, and stakeholder dynamics over time.
Supervisors:
- Dr. Koen van Dam, Department of Chemical Engineering
- Dr. Nixon Sunny, Centre for Environmental Policy
Assessing the EU's attempt to Establish a Zero-carbon Hydrogen Economy
In Europe, clean hydrogen is seen as a key solution for achieving the 2050 carbon neutrality target set by the European Green Deal. Despite its potential, clean hydrogen remains costly. Various regional and local policy schemes aim to expand the hydrogen market. This thesis evaluates the EU’s efforts to establish a zero-carbon hydrogen economy in the industrial sector by 2030, determines if current EU clean hydrogen policies can generate sufficient demand-pull within the industrial sector, and determines when cost-competitiveness can be achieved under today's policies.
Supervisors:
- Dr. Gbemi Oluleye, Grantham Institute