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  • Journal article
    Cecil E, Bottle A, Cowling TE, Majeed A, Wolfe I, Saxena Set al., 2016,

    Primary Care Access, Emergency Department Visits, and Unplanned Short Hospitalizations in the UK

    , PEDIATRICS, Vol: 137, ISSN: 0031-4005
  • Journal article
    Rost NS, Bottle A, Lee J-M, Randall M, Middleton S, Shaw L, Thijs V, Rinkel GJE, Hemmen TMet al., 2016,

    Stroke Severity Is a Crucial Predictor of Outcome: An International Prospective Validation Study

    , Journal of the American Heart Association, Vol: 5, ISSN: 2047-9980

    Background Stroke is among the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Without reliable prediction models and outcome measurements, comparison of care systems is impossible. We analyzed prospectively collected data from 4 countries to explore the importance of stroke severity in outcome prediction.Methods and Results For 2 months, all acute ischemic stroke patients from the hospitals participating in the Global Comparators Stroke GOAL (Global Outcomes Accelerated Learning) collaboration received a National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score on admission and a modified Rankin Scale score at 30 and 90 days. These data were added to the administrative data set, and risk prediction models including age, sex, comorbidity index, and NIHSS were derived for in‐hospital death within 7 days, all in‐hospital death, and death and good outcome at 30 and 90 days. The relative importance of each variable was assessed using the proportion of explained variation. Of 1034 admissions for acute ischemic stroke, 614 had a full set of NIHSS and both modified Rankin Scale values recorded; of these, 507 patients could be linked to administrative data. The marginal proportion of explained variation was 0.7% to 4.0% for comorbidity index, and 11.3 to 25.0 for NIHSS score. The percentage explained by the model varied by outcome (16.6–29.1%) and was highest for good outcome at 30 and 90 days. There was high agreement between 30‐ and 90‐day modified Rankin Scale scores (weighted κ=0.82).Conclusions In this prospective pilot study, the baseline NIHSS score was essential for prediction of acute ischemic stroke outcomes, followed by age; whereas traditional comorbidity index contributed little to the overall model. Future studies of stroke outcomes between different care systems will benefit from including a baseline NIHSS score.
  • Journal article
    Bouras G, Burns EM, Howell A, Bottle R, Athanasiou T, darzi Aet al., 2015,

    Risk of Post-Discharge Venous Thromboembolism and Associated Mortality in General Surgery: A Population-Based Cohort Study Using Linked Hospital and Primary Care Data in England

    , PLOS One, ISSN: 1932-6203
  • Journal article
    Aylin PP, Ruiz M, Bottle A, 2016,

    Exploring the impact of Consultants’ experience on hospital mortality by day of the week: a retrospective analysis of hospital episode statistics

    , BMJ Quality & Safety, ISSN: 2044-5423
  • Journal article
    Gaudoin R, Montana G, Jones S, Aylin P, Bottle Aet al., 2015,

    Classifier calibration using splined empirical probabilities in clinical risk prediction

    , HEALTH CARE MANAGEMENT SCIENCE, Vol: 18, Pages: 156-165, ISSN: 1386-9620
  • Journal article
    Aylin PP, Bottle RA, Ruiz M,

    Global Comparators Project: International comparison of 30-day In-hospital mortality by day of the week.

    , BMJ Quality & Safety, ISSN: 2044-5423
  • Conference paper
    Byrne B, Aylin P, Bottle R, Faiz O, Darzi A, Vincent Cet al., 2015,

    Lack of engagement in surgical quality improvement research is associated with poorer quality of care.

    , Digestive Disorders Federation
  • Conference paper
    Byrne B, Aylin P, Bottle RA, Faiz OD, Darzi A, Vincent CAet al., 2015,

    Failure to engage in surgical quality improvement research is associated with poorer quality of care

    , Royal Society of Medicine, Coloproctology section: Overseas meeting in Leuven
  • Journal article
    Nouraei SAR, Middleton SE, Hudovsky A, Branford OA, Lau C, Clarke PM, Wood SH, Aylin P, Mace A, Jallali N, Darzi Aet al., 2015,

    Role of reconstructive surgery in the management of head and neck cancer: A national outcomes analysis of 11,841 reconstructions

    , JOURNAL OF PLASTIC RECONSTRUCTIVE AND AESTHETIC SURGERY, Vol: 68, Pages: 469-478, ISSN: 1748-6815
  • Journal article
    Bottle A, Aylin P, Loeffler M, 2014,

    Return to theatre for elective hip and knee replacements WHAT IS THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF PATIENT FACTORS, SURGEON AND HOSPITAL?

    , BONE & JOINT JOURNAL, Vol: 96B, Pages: 1663-1668, ISSN: 2049-4394

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Statistical Methods for Healthcare Performance Monitoring
A book for those measuring, monitoring, comparing and improving healthcare performance